$200K Next Stop for Bitcoin, Fundstrats Tom Lee Says, But Only if FED Cuts Rates
The prediction hinges on Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, as Lee explains that “Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are super sensitive to monetary policy.”
Markets expect a 25-basis-point rate cut at the 17 September Federal Reserve meeting, with some possibility of a 50-basis-point reduction instead.
The FOMC decision and Chair Powell’s guidance on growth, inflation, and monetary policy will be crucial catalysts for determining whether any crypto rally proves durable.
As Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow band for several weeks now, many traders and investors are wondering whether we will see a further rally or whether the bull run will fizzle out.
According to Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstrat Global Advisors, the former is more likely. Speaking to CNBC, Lee said that the largest crypto could go to US$200k (AU$302k) by the end of 2025.
Lee explained that much of this depends on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as “Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies like Ethereum are super sensitive to monetary policy”.
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It’s All About Powell’s Next Move
Markets expect a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting on 17 September. The consensus points to a 25-basis-point (bp) move, with some assigning a smaller probability to 50 bps.
This could push Bitcoin and the broader crypto market higher, with Lee expecting the price to nearly double.
I think Bitcoin can easily get to $200,000 before the end of the year, and I know that’s a big move.
A pivotal macro catalyst now is the 17 September FOMC decision. If the Fed delivers the widely anticipated 25-bp cut – and signals that further easing remains on the table – easier financial conditions could filter through via lower real yields and looser dollar liquidity, historically supportive for risk assets.
Conversely, a hawkish tone or a surprise hold would risk squeezing beta and tilting flows defensive in the short term. Either way, the ‘dots’, statement language and Chair Powell’s press conference will matter as much as the headline move; markets will parse guidance on growth, inflation and the balance-sheet path for clues about how durable any crypto rally might be.
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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ September 9, 2025 6:26 am