The post 90-Day Tariff Delay Can’t Cut Polymarket 65% Recession Odds appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Polymarket shows high 65% odds for a US recession occurring during 2025 Trump administration announces unexpected 90-day pause on new tariffs Recession odds on Polymarket stay elevated (65%) despite the 90-day tariff pause The likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 has soared to 65% on blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket.  Lingering effects of the earlier interest rate hike announcements, the trade policy shifts, and weakening market conditions, fuel the increase in perceived risk. Why Are Polymarket Recession Odds Surging? Speculators on Polymarket now assign a 65% probability to a U.S. recession this year, up from 26% when President Donald Trump took office in January.  The market defines a recession by the standard measure: two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. These odds show a steady climb over the recent weeks with growing concern among investors and analysts. Kalshi, another prediction platform, had placed recession odds at 18% at the start of the year. Further compounding the probability, Goldman Sachs has raised its recession forecast to 45%, up from 35%. On the same note, JPMorgan estimates 60%. Notably, UCLA economist Clement Bohr said a downturn could still be avoided if Trump’s policies are rolled out gradually. Factors Driving Recession Fears The shift in sentiment is tied to macroeconomic trends and recent policy moves. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate hikes over the past two years have slowed economic activity, especially in rate-sensitive sectors such as housing and consumer spending. Related: Engineered Recession Response? Theory Swirls as Tariffs Send Markets Reeling Adding to market stress were concerns around recently announced US tariffs on Chinese goods, though news emerged today, of a 90-day pause to its implementation.  Prior to the halt, the tariff announcements contributed to market volatility, including a near 10% drop in major U.S. stock indices last week before a…

---

Filed under: News - @ April 10, 2025 3:24 am