Bitcoin spot ETF done – Is a six-figure BTC ‘supercycle’ coming up?

Bitcoin’s volume increased above $50 billion one day after the approval, indicating rising interest in trading the coin.
Most predictions were in the six-figure range, suggesting the BTC is ready for a new ATH.
Technical indicators showed that BTC might reach $64,307 in a few months while on-chain metrics remain bullish.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] price tapped $47,467 as the 10th of January, 2024 became a historic day for the cryptocurrency, thanks to the U.S. SEC’s approval of all 11 spot ETFs.

As you probably know, there has been a lot of hype leading to the final resolution. Before the decision, many analysts opined that the outcome would either make or break BTC.

For instance, Cathie Wood, the CEO of ARK Invest, predicted that the price of 1 BTC could cross $1 million by 2030.

In her thesis, she mentioned that institutional adoption of Bitcoin would be the main driver. But Wood’s seemingly logical opinion was the major reason many market participants looked forward to the approval.

Bitcoin is no longer at arm’s length

To put it in simple terms, the spot ETFs would offer investors exposure to Bitcoin. But in this case, the players do not necessarily need to own any BTC.

So, large institutions are not the only ones who could gain from the exposure. Rather, investors who do not want to interact with crypto directly can also participate.

This potential to see an exponential surge in Bitcoin adoption is why market participants think the BTC price would hit a new All-Time High (ATH).

Notably, Bitcoin’s previous ATH was $69,000 in 2021. This sentiment led AMBCrypto to speak to some experts about the price prediction.

The first person we had this conversation with was Ryan Grace. Grace is the head of tastycrypto, a DeFi wallet for on-chain activity.

According to him, the spot Bitcoin ETF would provide a tailwind for flows in the long term. Concerning the price, he said,
“If we assume an ETF makes it easier for RIAs to gain crypto exposure for their clients, there’s approximately $100 trillion under management by RIAs in the US alone. Assuming 1% is allocated to bitcoin it could have an outsized impact on price.”
Furthermore, AMBCrypto checked for Bitcoin’s volume since the announcement. At press time, the volume had risen to $52.3 billion—  a point it had evaded since the new year began.

The surge in volume was proof that interest in BTC has increased. Also, it was a testament to the buying and selling of the coin.

Source: Santiment

However, there is a high chance that the volume will rise higher when the ETFs begin official trading. Should the volume continue to increase as well as the price, then Bitcoin might close in on $50,000.

“Delay is not denial”

For many, the spot Bitcoin ETF is 10 years late. This was because the first application was in 2013. During this time, the Winklevoss brothers asked to launch the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust. Unfortunately, it fell on deaf ears.

The latest development ushered in praises for Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss. For example, Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream lauded the brothers for their early works.

However, the launch was not without controversy. On the 9th of January, AMBCrypto reported how the SEC’s X account was hacked and Chair Gary Gensler disclosed that the initial post about the approval was not from the regulator.

Meanwhile, recent revelations showed that Gensler voted for the approval. In his statement, he noted that the Grayscale win over the SEC played a role in his decision despite not being a supporter of the crypto industry.

A new ATH  is inevitable, analysts agree

Further, AMBCrypto’s numerous conversations showed that others were more bullish on the Bitcoin price. One of them was Bitcoin University founder Evander Smart. According to Smart, BTC has incredible potential both in the short and long term.

When asked about his price prediction, Smart said,
“I expect a new All-Time High by the end of Q1, and $200k is probable by the end of the year. Bitcoin grew over 150% without Wall Street’s help, in 2023. A little more than double that, with their deep pockets involved, is very realistic. The legendary ‘Bitcoin Bull Market’ started last year. With this move, The Bitcoin Supercycle is now upon us.”
Another person who shared a similar view was Mason Miller, the president of AI and analytics firm AMP ALGOS. From our discussion, Miller was convicted that BTC would hit $50,000 anytime soon.

But unlike Smart, Miller noted that a new ATH would occur in Q2 2024. He based his prediction on the fact that Bitcoin halving was scheduled for April. He noted,
“While the Bitcoin market charts its course, it’s my opinion that Bitcoin’s trajectory towards the $50,000 support zone is inevitable, setting the stage for new all-time highs. The upcoming Bitcoin halving in March is poised to be a pivotal moment, leading us to anticipate a record-breaking BTC performance by the end of Q2, 2024.”

Up only for the time being?

A look at the daily BTC/USD chart showed that these opinions could be valid. This was due to the positions of the Exponential Moving Average (EMA). At press time, the 20 EMA (blue) had crossed over the 50 EMA (yellow).

In the short term, this is considered a bullish trend for the coin.

It was a similar case per the 50 EMAA and 200 EMA (purple), which had formed a golden cross. If this trend remains the way it is, BTC could be on its way to a new ATH in a few months.

Another indicator we assessed was the Awesome Oscillator (AO). As of this writing, the AO  was 2254.36, indicating increasing upward momentum.

Should the AO remain in the positive territory, BTC might reclaim $47,000 and probably move higher over the next few days.

Source: TradingView

Furthermore, the RSI and Aroon indicators displayed signs that buyers were more present than those liquidating their Bitcoin. While the RSI was 61.58, the Aroon Up (orange) ranked higher than the Aroon Down (blue).

Indications from the 4-hour chart also aligned with the signs from the daily timeframe. But this time, we looked at the Auto Fibonacci Extension.

Eyes on $52,900 and $64,307

From the chart below, the 0.618 Fib level was at $48,146, indicating that BTC might hit the level soon. The 0.618 level could also act as support for the coin once it hits the aforementioned price.

Furthermore, the Fib extension also showed that Bitcoin’s bullish potential was solid. This was because of the price at which the 4.236 extension was positioned.

At press time, the 4.236 extension was at $64,307. So, in the mid to long term, BTC might get very close to its previous ATH.

This potential was also backed by the Accumulation/Distribution (A/D). At press time, the A/D had climbed to 3.38 million, suggesting that buying pressure had outpaced distribution.

Source: TradingView

Predictions by analysts on X also suggest that Bitcoin’s price was due for an increase. For instance, analyst Ali Martinez mentioned that BTC could extend to $52,900 in the short term.

Some argue that a new ATH is not yet here

However, AMBCrypto got a contrarian opinion from one of the experts we talked to. This time, it was in a discussion with June Jia, the Owner of Canny Trading and a Quantitative Researcher at GF Securities.

According to Jia, Bitcoin’s price would increase significantly in the long term. He noted that the potential increase in adoption would help it surpass the gold ETF introduction. But for 2024, Jia explained that.
“However, I think that 2024 Bitcoin prices will still not reach a new historical high. Since 2020, the price of Bitcoin has maintained a high correlation with stock indices, especially the Nasdaq index. In the current environment of high-interest rates, the economy becomes more unpredictable and fragile, and high-interest rates have a significant suppressive effect on risk assets like the stock market and Bitcoin.”
In terms of the Pi Cycle Top, AMBCrypto’s analysis showed that BTC was not overheated. The Pi Cycle Top shows the positions of the 111-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and 350-day SMA. If the shorter EMA reaches the larger EMA, then the market is close to its top.

In this case, the BTC price would undergo a correction. But at press time, the 111-day SMA was below the 350 SMA. So, there is a chance for the price to increase as indicated by the several predictions above.

Source: Glassnode

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Like Jia, Stefan Rust, CEO of  Truflation, agreed that BTC’s market cap would soon compete with that of gold. He said,
“Right now, bitcoin’s total market cap is around $912 billion, but we could see it competing with gold, which is nearly a $14 trillion market. That’s 15x from here, so we have a long way to go and only 21 million coins to go around.”
Regarding his price prediction, Rust opined that Bitcoin would hit $150,000 because of the demand and influx of new investors. He also mentioned that it could happen within a short time and like Miller, he referred to the upcoming Bitcoin halving as a catalyst.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ January 11, 2024 6:00 pm