A recent survey conducted by Bitget has shed light on investors’ optimistic outlook towards the upcoming Bitcoin (BTC) halving event scheduled for April 2024. Notably, the survey indicates that most respondents anticipate Bitcoin surpassing its all-time high (ATH) of $69,000 during the next bull run. 

The study also highlights diverse predictions for Bitcoin’s price during the halving and provides insights into investment intentions across different regions.

Bullish Sentiment Soars

According to the survey, an overwhelming 84% of respondents globally predict Bitcoin will exceed its previous ATH of $69,000 in the next bull run. This sentiment is particularly strong in Latin America, East Asia, and South East Asia. However, European regions exhibit more conservative expectations.

The survey reveals diverse predictions for Bitcoin’s price during the halving. While more than half of the respondents anticipate a price range between $30,000 and $60,000, around 30% believe that BTC’s price will surpass $60,000. The optimism is especially pronounced in markets like Latin America.

Moreover, approximately 70% of respondents expressed plans to increase their crypto investments, indicating robust confidence in the potential of the crypto market. 

The study highlights a stronger inclination to increase investments in regions like the Middle East/North Africa (MENA) and East Europe. In contrast, South East and East Asia present a more mixed investment outlook.

The survey reveals interesting regional variations in sentiment and expectations. Western European investors exhibit a “short-term cautious, long-term optimistic” sentiment, while Western Europe shows a relatively conservative outlook during the halving period. 

Gracy Chen, Managing Director of Bitget, emphasizes the significance of the survey results in understanding the evolving landscape of cryptocurrency investment, stating: 

We are pleased to see such positive sentiment emerging as market conditions continue recovering. At Bitget, we firmly believe in Bitcoin’s potential to establish itself as a truly global store of value.

Bitcoin Halving Cycles

Renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital has delved into the historical patterns surrounding Bitcoin halving events, shedding light on the typically occurring five phases. 

Pre-Halving Period:
The pre-halving period refers to the approximately 77 days leading up to the Bitcoin halving event in April 2024. Historically, this period has presented attractive opportunities for investors, as deeper retraces tend to generate excellent returns in the months following the halving. 
Pre-Halving Rally:
According to Rekt, a pre-halving rally typically occurs approximately 60 days before the halving. Investors “buy the hype” in anticipation of the halving, aiming to “sell the news” and realize profits. Short-term traders and speculators capitalize on the hype-driven rally before selling their positions. The subsequent selling pressure contributes to a retrace known as the pre-halving retrace.
Pre-Halving Retrace:
The pre-halving retrace occurs a couple of weeks before the actual halving event. In 2016, this retrace reached a depth of -38%, while in 2020, it was -20%. Interestingly, Rekt emphasizes that this phase can last for several weeks, leading some investors to question whether the halving will act as a bullish catalyst for Bitcoin’s price.
Re-Accumulation:
Following the pre-halving retrace, a period of re-accumulation typically takes place, lasting up to 150 days or approximately five months. During this phase, Bitcoin experiences consolidation as investors reposition and accumulate more assets. 
Parabolic Uptrend:
Once Bitcoin breaks out of the re-accumulation phase, it enters a parabolic uptrend characterized by accelerated growth and a journey toward new all-time highs. This phase represents the culmination of the halving cycle, where Bitcoin’s price experiences significant upward momentum.

Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ February 2, 2024 3:00 am