All signs point to Trump: Could this be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge?
The post All signs point to Trump: Could this be a catalyst for Bitcoin’s surge? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Trump has maintained a lead over Kamala across all prediction sites and models. BTC options traders were heavily bullish on the election outcome expectations. All prediction sites and top models revealed that pro-Bitcoin [BTC] candidate Donald Trump has a higher chance of winning the upcoming US presidential elections. According to the latest review by analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, prediction sites like Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt, and others were polling a +60% chance of Trump winning. Source: Bianco Research Potential impact on BTC Although some platforms like Polymarket have recently faced criticism of alleged manipulation, other reliable models leaned towards Trump. Bianco noted that top election models, such as Silver Bulletin and two other popular models, also showed a high probability of +50% of a Trump win. “Silver is not the only one with an election model. Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, Economist Magazine. They all have Trump in an uptrend of over 50%.” This above expectation has been deemed bullish by speculators in BTC markets. Notably, BTC exploded in the past few weeks as Trump’s odds surged and crossed 60% on Polymarket. It pushed BTC to nearly $70K. Commenting on the correlation, Bianco termed it an ‘election play,’ “And another election play, although this relationship might be “fraying” in recent days.” Source: Bianco Research Market positioning Perhaps the most evident impact of the above bullish expectation on Trump’s win was in the BTC options market. Last week, options traders were pricing a 20% chance of BTC hitting $80K by the end of November. The sentiment was unchanged at press time. According to Deribit data, there was nearly twice as much Open Interest in call options (betting price rally) than in put options (price decline) for contracts expiring by 8th November. Source: Deribit Additionally, the put/call ratio (PCR), which tracks options market…
Filed under: News - @ October 28, 2024 4:02 am