The post Trump odds tank on Polymarket as whale dumps $3M, following GCR’s tweet appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Polymarket took a massive hit as Trump’s betting odds sank after a whale investor offloaded $3 million in Trump shares. This dump came right after GCR, a high-profile crypto advisor, tweeted about taking profits on his Trump bets, sparking a frenzy among traders. Within minutes of his tweet, the account ‘larpas’ started unloading Trump shares, dragging down Trump’s odds by 4% before they rebounded slightly to 58.1%. GCR’s comments struck at the heart of the speculation machine that’s been driving Trump’s odds on Polymarket, especially as Election Day looms closer. The tweet triggered a wave of reactions on Crypto Twitter (CT), where some joked about holding leveraged Trump positions based on his “prophecies.” One response read, “Not even kidding, my entire port is 5x leverage long TRUMP on the GCR prophecy. Asking for refunds in DMs if I get liquidated.” In his typical fashion, GCR advised against leverage, calling it “reckless gambling.” He underscored the importance of probabilistic thinking and advised traders to avoid reckless plays, a sentiment he’s pushed repeatedly. Inside GCR’s Trump bet strategy GCR’s prediction on Trump’s odds has been a multi-year bet on both the former president and the dynamics of Republican politics. Back in 2021, GCR argued that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was just a “paper tiger,” convinced that Trump was the real frontrunner for the Republican nomination with odds above 95%. GCR viewed Trump’s odds as severely underpriced, especially in a prediction market that he claimed leaned right-wing, a trend he saw even back in 2020. According to him, Polymarket’s odds for Trump were so misaligned that he piled in on shares when Trump’s implied chances were under 10%, expecting them to rise to 65% or higher if his call on DeSantis proved accurate. When his projections hit, GCR cashed out, saying he was…

---

Filed under: News - @ November 4, 2024 9:26 pm