The post Traders predict 36% probability of crypto executive order today, 56% chance of Bitcoin reserve appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

President-elect Donald Trump made many promises to the Bitcoin and crypto communities during his presidential run. As he is sworn in for a second term later today, we look at which of them will most likely come to fruition. After successfully choosing the winner of the US election, Polymarket traders are now attempting to predict where he will follow through on his promises. Polymarket data shows high expectations around pardons for the January 6 defendants and Ross Ulbricht, along with possible support for a strategic Bitcoin reserve. Traders are also watching whether new tariffs will be imposed on Mexico or Canada and whether an executive order on crypto will appear on Day 1. Prediction Chance Volume Trump will create a Bitcoin Reserve in the first 100 days 56% $2,598,422 Over 40 Executive Orders signed on Day 1 64% $536,229 January 6 protestors pardoned in first 100 days 99% $7,952,113 Trump will save TikTok in first week 92% $327,345 Trump will end the Ukraine war in the first 90 days 34% $9,281,609 Trump will issue a crypto executive order on Day 1 36% $193,914 January 6 protestors pardoned on Day 1 92% $119,449 Trump will sign a national abortion ban 20% $605,920 Gulf of Mexico renamed to “Gulf of America.” 66% $73,021 25% tariff imposed on Mexico/Canada 31% $448,663 Trump will acquire Greenland in 2025 20% $798,726 Trump will declassify JFK assassination files 75% $512,872 Markets suggest that pardons and selected crypto policies carry the strongest likelihood. Polymarket assigns a 99% chance of pardons for nonviolent January 6 participants in Trump’s first 100 days and a 92% chance for pardons issued on Day 1. Ross Ulbricht, who Trump vowed to free on day one, has an 83% chance of receiving clemency in the first 100 days. There is also a strong…

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Filed under: News - @ January 20, 2025 12:25 pm