TL;DR

Bitcoin has faced intense selling pressure since January, mainly among recent investors panicking as they realize losses.
Metrics like STH-SOPR indicate fear-driven selling, reminiscent of the August 2024 collapse when BTC fell to $49,000.
Investor confidence has declined due to external events such as the Bybit hack and trade tensions between the US and China.

According to a recent Glassnode report, the selling pressure on Bitcoin has significantly intensified over the recent months, especially impacting new investors who bought near all-time high levels. Since early January, the market has experienced a clear shift towards distribution, clearly reflected by key metrics such as the Accumulation Trend Score, which has consistently hovered around zero, indicating a widespread lack of meaningful accumulation.

Recent Buyers: Between Fear and Loss

One of the most concerning factors is the behavior of short-term holders (STH), who are currently selling at considerable losses. The STH-SOPR indicator, which measures whether recent investors are selling at profits or losses, is currently positioned well below the break-even point, showing values near 0.97 during critical moments, a clear sign of capitulation.

This situation is eerily reminiscent of the crash witnessed in August 2024, when Bitcoin rapidly lost ground, plunging to around $49,000. Currently, the combination of extreme volatility, low liquidity, and external events such as the recent hack of the Bybit platform, together with escalating trade tensions between the United States and China, have introduced additional layers of uncertainty to the market.

Impact of External Events and Loss of Confidence

The weakness in demand has also been confirmed by complementary metrics such as the Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap, which shows a noticeable deterioration since late February in investors’ willingness to buy dips. The price range between $95,000 and $98,000, previously considered strong support due to robust buying interest during prior pullbacks, now appears vulnerable, signaling a significant shift in risk perception.

Additionally, the bearish crossover between the cost basis of investors with holding periods of one week to one month versus those with one to three months further reinforces this pessimistic short-term outlook. This pattern indicates that newer investors are no longer willing to pay premiums for Bitcoin and are instead choosing caution, potentially prolonging the ongoing corrective phase.

While this scenario raises alarms among recent investors, for long-term holders, this capitulation might represent a unique opportunity to once again accumulate positions at discounted prices, anticipating a future rebound once macroeconomic conditions stabilize and market confidence is restored.

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Filed under: News - @ March 12, 2025 12:27 pm