The post Beg your pardon appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

You can find the research portal I am building in public here. I am working on it daily, so expect a lot of change on the site, including mistakes. S2N spotlight Equity markets sold off strongly on Friday. I was thinking over the weekend about how making the 3 major US stock indices into a consensus indicator would perform. Thesis for the chart that follows: when all 3 indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial, and Nasdaq Composite) are above their 200-day moving average, mark it green with an up arrow. When all 3 are below their 200-day moving average, mark it red with a down arrow. When looking at the chart with the naked eye, going back to 2007, it looks like an amazing indicator? Not so fast. I purposely used big green and red arrow markers, which make the consensus indicator look unbelievably accurate. If you were paying attention to my rules, you would realise there needs to be a 3rd phase, as what should be done when there isn’t consensus, i.e., 2 indices might be below their 200-day but the 3rd isn’t? I have created a backtest that goes to cash whenever there is no consensus amongst the 3 indices. I should also add the consensus indicator is being used to decide when to invest or not in the S&P 500. It turns out to be a horrible indicator for investing in the S&P 500 since 1990. I was really hoping to share with you guys today that based on the current sell signal from all 3 indices, we should all be going short based on past history. There is no evidence to support this from my backtest. [This doesn’t mean I am not short or dont think you should be; it just means this method cannot support…

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Filed under: News - @ March 31, 2025 7:12 am