The post Is a four-year Bitcoin cycle dead? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

As financial institutions, corporations, and governments increasingly began to adopt Bitcoin, some observers of the crypto market started to question whether the four-year cycle model typically applied to Bitcoin is still relevant. Let’s see how this cycle is designed and why many people doubt it is still reliable. An X account called Bitcoin Archive posted a poll asking if the four-year cycles for Bitcoin are over. In ten hours, over 10,000 accounts cast their votes, with the affirmative answer leading at 52%. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the four-year cycles are not reliable anymore, but rather, it indicates that many people see that the landscape is changing. Understanding the four-year Bitcoin cycles When Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin, he encoded the mechanism that cuts the mining reward in two roughly once every four years in the event known as ‘halving.’ It drastically reduces the inflow of new bitcoins to the market. It elevates the costs of unlocking new coins via mining as miners have to spend the same amount of resources to get 50% of what they were getting before halving. Therefore, they have to sell what they mine for higher prices to keep their operation profitable.  Given that the BTC price is mostly driven by demand and supply, halving sets the four-year cycle for the Bitcoin price very naturally. The number of new coins shrinks every four years, and the prices of these coins inevitably go up.  The Bitcoin four-year cycle has several stages. Within 12–18 months after the halving, the BTC price goes up and hits a new all-time high. Some traders even expect the bull market to begin several weeks ahead of the halving. Usually, the bull market is succeeded by the bear market once the BTC price reaches a new record high. The price drops in several…

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Filed under: News - @ April 11, 2025 1:28 am