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This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. It’s been two weeks since Liberation Day sent global markets into a tailspin. We’ve seen a lot these past 14 days, but I wouldn’t dare say we’ve seen it all.  To oversimplify it: We’ve seen stocks fall, then rise, then fall again. Gold did the opposite, posting a surprising drop in the days after Liberation Day. But the precious metal has since hit a new record high.  Bond markets sold off dramatically — spurring concerns over a massive basis trade unwind, or retaliatory selling from big foreign holders. We don’t know who was selling (and it’s hard to even say which scenario is worse), but the situation reportedly spooked Trump’s team enough to talk him into walking back his policies.  Speaking of tariff policies, those too have changed this month. After announcing a 90-day pause on rates exceeding 10% for most countries, the Trump administration increased its levies on China. It actually did this several times. As it currently stands, some goods (like electric vehicles and medical syringes) have tariffs of 245%.  Trump also issued some “exemptions,” although he’d classify these policies as simply moving certain imports into a different tariff “bucket.” The US Customs and Border Protection last week issued guidance exempting certain consumer electronics (smartphones, computers, etc.) from both reciprocal tariffs on China and the 10% global tariff on all imports. The next day, White House senior adviser Stephen Miller clarified that these products, when imported from China, are still subject to a 20% levy. The administration maintains that these exemptions will be temporary.  Personally, I’d be surprised if we see a permanent tariff — at least as high as initially proposed — on consumer electronic imports.  Consider Apple, the largest company in the…

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Filed under: News - @ April 16, 2025 8:20 pm