Bitcoin is facing growing risks of a pullback as bullish momentum begins to fade near key resistance. After weeks of impressive gains, BTC is now consolidating in a tight range just below its all-time high, with buyers struggling to push the price into price discovery. This ongoing indecision has raised concerns among traders and analysts, who are closely watching for signs of either a breakout or a deeper retracement.

Crypto analyst Daan offered a broader perspective on the situation, noting that Bitcoin initially surged in response to the recent tariff-related tensions, significantly outperforming equities in the process. However, as trade uncertainty began to ease and traditional markets regained momentum, Bitcoin lost steam and failed to follow through. While stocks continued their uptrend, BTC stalled—an unusual divergence that suggests caution may be creeping back into the crypto space.

With the price now hovering around the $103K mark and key resistance near $105K remaining untouched, bulls must act decisively to reclaim control. A failure to do so could trigger a larger correction, especially if macro conditions shift or equity markets show renewed weakness. For now, all eyes are on the range — and which side breaks first.

Bitcoin Bulls Eye Breakout But Caution Grows Near Resistance

Bitcoin is just 5% away from its all-time high of around $109,000, trading near $103K as bulls attempt to reclaim momentum. After weeks of strong upward movement and consolidation above key levels, many analysts believe BTC is preparing for a decisive breakout. If price can clear the $105K resistance, it could trigger a new leg into price discovery and signal the start of a powerful bull phase.

However, selling pressure at current levels remains strong. Bitcoin has struggled to break higher, and some traders see this consolidation as a sign of potential exhaustion. Daan offered insights on the recent behavior, noting that BTC surged sharply following the tariff-related macro drama, outperforming equities in the process. Yet, as some trade uncertainty faded, stocks kept climbing while BTC stalled near resistance.

Daan considers $90K his “line in the sand” for long-term spot exposure. If Bitcoin were to drop below that mark, it would suggest a structural breakdown that hasn’t occurred during this cycle. For now, he remains cautiously bullish while BTC stays above that level, but admits the risk-reward was more attractive when BTC was 20–30% cheaper.

He also warns that if equities correct after their aggressive rallies—many stocks have surged 30–50% in a single month—it could drag Bitcoin lower in a short-term flush. With BTC showing relative weakness near resistance, the next move will be critical for confirming either continued upside or the start of a broader pullback.

Tight 4H Range Signals Imminent Price Breakout

The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin consolidating tightly between $105,700 resistance and $100,700 support, creating a narrow range that suggests a strong move is imminent. Price has been ranging sideways for several days, with multiple failed breakout attempts above $103,600. This level continues to act as a key barrier for bulls.

Notably, Bitcoin remains above both the 200 EMA ($96,121) and the 200 SMA ($94,622), reinforcing the medium-term bullish structure. Momentum is neutral in the short term, as shown by the indecisive price action and declining volume. However, the trend remains intact as long as BTC holds above $100,000 — the psychological and technical line in the sand.

If price breaks above $103,600 with volume, it could trigger a move toward the $105,000–$109,000 range and initiate a push into price discovery. On the other hand, failure to hold this support zone could open the door for a quick flush to retest the $98,000–$96,000 area, where the moving averages align.

Traders should watch for a clear breakout or breakdown, especially as moving averages and prior highs converge. This tight setup rarely lasts long, and a decisive move could define Bitcoin’s trend for the rest of the month.

Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 17, 2025 4:00 pm