Crypto analyst Fred Krueger recently outlined a dramatic scenario in which Bitcoin’s price explodes from roughly $150,000 to $600,000 between July 21 and Oct. 19, 2025.

He released this forecast on social media as a five-stage plan (dubbed “The Last Rally”). In Krueger’s view, each phase involves major financial shocks—from a failed U.S. Treasury auction to a new Bretton Woods–style summit—that together would drive a parabolic Bitcoin rally.

Krueger’s outline breaks down into sequential “phases,” each building toward the rally. In summary:

Phase I: A $200 billion U.S. Treasury auction fails, prompting the Fed to signal “extraordinary measures.” In this environment, Bitcoin briefly jumps (from $158k to $165k) and gold hits $4,200. Simultaneously, BRICS countries establish an independent payment network using gold and Bitcoin.

Phase II: A major U.S. pension fund defaults on obligations. The Fed imposes yield curve control, capping 10-year yields at 6.5%, and the dollar weakens sharply. Under these conditions, Krueger projects Bitcoin at $215,000, oil around $122, and gold about $5,800. (He also notes Germany pledges to back the euro with new gold reserves.)

Phase III: U.S. home prices plunge 35% and 10-year Treasury yields spike above 8.5%. Bitcoin surges to about $390,000 in this turmoil while gold reaches $8,900.

Each of these phases is meant to stoke a flight to alternative assets. For example, in Phase I, Bitcoin and gold initially rise on the chaos, and by Phase III, soaring yields and housing losses further erode confidence in fiat. All dollar figures above are Krueger’s estimates for that stage.

Corporate Moves and Currency Restructuring

Krueger’s final phases bring in corporate buyers and a full currency reset:

Phase IV: Major tech giants (Apple, Tesla, Google) “convert their balance sheets to Bitcoin.” Apple alone accumulates 200,000 BTC. Latin American governments also turn to crypto. 

Meanwhile, the IMF announces a new global reserve basket (50% Bitcoin, 30% gold, 10% yuan, 10% other) and the Bank of England issues Bitcoin-backed bonds. By this point, Bitcoin exceeds $525,000.

Phase V: A “New Bretton Woods” summit in Geneva restructures the U.S. dollar. The dollar gains 25% Bitcoin and 25% gold collateral, and the Fed launches a digital dollar (CBDC), expanding its balance sheet to $44 trillion. 

In this finale, Bitcoin reaches $600,000, gold $10,400, and oil $180 per barrel. The U.S. dollar index (DXY) drops to the high 60s.

In other words, Krueger foresees an unprecedented reshuffling: global reserve currencies realign around BTC and gold. His scenario explicitly puts the dollar index around 68 and projects the S&P 500 roughly halving (a 50% drop from current levels).

Krueger’s scenario is highly controversial. It depends on a chain of severe crises that have not occurred. The “$600K prediction” is still viewed as speculative and even “controversial”. Nonetheless, it has sparked discussion online about what market or policy events could set off the proposed rally.

Bitcoin’s Price Trajectory

For context, Bitcoin price has indeed been rallying in mid-2025. After briefly dipping to just above $100,000 in mid-May, BTC quickly rebounded above $103,000.

BTC/USDT Price Chart| Source: TradingView

By May 21, it traded around $107–108K, a 14% gain since the start of May. In this rally, the total crypto market capitalization climbed past $3.36 trillion.

Despite these gains, Bitcoin remains below its January 2025 all-time high ($109,000). Traders note that the uptrend has formed a bullish flag pattern, with key resistance in the $112k—$120k range.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price is $108,352, having climbed 3% over the last 24 hours. It has a trading volume of $67 billion. 

The market is also digesting macro factors (Fed policy, tariffs, etc.) that could fuel or cap the rally. In short, Bitcoin’s current momentum is strong, but many analysts view further moves as contingent on traditional-market dynamics.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 21, 2025 5:24 pm