The price cycles of Bitcoin have for a long time followed familiar patterns that were driven by the behavior of long-term holders.

Traditionally, these investors accumulated heavily during bear markets and then gradually distributed their holdings as bull markets gained strength. This well-documented rhythm has been what created the bowl-shaped on-chain accumulation and distribution curves that analysts use to understand Bitcoin’s market phases. But recent data is giving off the impression that this cycle might be evolving or even breaking down.

Early and Irregular Distribution Signals Uncertainty

In the past, holders of Bitcoin for the long term have demonstrated disciplined behavior. They have continually and steadily accumulated the asset during periods of price downturns and then, as the price has rallied, released coins with great confidence. This behavior has resulted in accumulation-distribution cycles that are smooth (as opposed to erratic), predictable, and in line with the larger, longer-term price trend of Bitcoin.

This current cycle, however, is breaking that mold. Instead of a clear, symmetrical distribution phase, the selling activity from long-term holders began earlier than usual. The process has been uneven—marked by intermittent spurts of selling followed by pauses, rather than the steady, measured exit typically observed. This stop-and-go pattern reflects a lack of consensus or confidence, even among Bitcoin veterans, about the precise timing and strength of the ongoing market cycle. Such irregular distribution creates a fragmented on-chain picture. Analysts and investors are finding it harder to draw firm conclusions about whether the bull market is firmly underway or if the cycle might be stalling. The behavior suggests a growing uncertainty or hesitation about the sustainability of current price levels, possibly influenced by broader macroeconomic factors, regulatory developments, or shifts in investor psychology.

Something is changing in the Bitcoin cycle

Historically, long-term holders have accumulated during bear markets and then distributed into strength during bull markets, carving out the familiar bowl-shaped patterns visible in on-chain charts.

This time, however, the script is… pic.twitter.com/gY108qOj7l

— Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock) (@SentoraHQ) May 26, 2025

Record Inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs Highlight Bullish Sentiment

Bitcoin’s mixed message from long-term holders is in stark contrast to the strong show of interest that the cryptocurrency is receiving from institutions. Between May 19 and May 23, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a net inflow of $2.75 billion. This amount, which is the third-largest weekly inflow in the history of Bitcoin ETFs, underscores the substantial demand—yet again, from both institutional and retail investors—for some form of regulated, easily accessible exposure to the asset.

From May 19 to May 23 (ET), spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net weekly inflow of $2.75 billion, marking the third-highest weekly inflow in history. Spot Ethereum ETFs saw a net weekly inflow of $248 million, with all nine ETFs reporting no outflows.https://t.co/ueXcZjub6m

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) May 26, 2025

These inflows show that even though long-term holders are uncertain, the broader market remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future. Spot ETFs present an alternative pathway for investment—one that does not require the direct custody or management of private keys—that makes Bitcoin accessible to a much wider audience, including more conservative investors. And this audience is definitely expressing interest.

Increased ETF inflows may be absorbing some of the capital being recycled back into the market by private holders who need to sell. Evolving regulatory clarity is undeniably a factor here, and so is the overall market environment. If risk assets can rally without a clear catalyst, then markets like Bitcoin’s may keep flirting with the idea of accomplishing what they used to — being a risk-on play. If ESG forces rallying for climate-baked legislation can do it, then so can we in the crypto climate.

Navigating an Evolving Bitcoin Market Landscape

The difference between traditional holder behavior and institutional inflows indicates that the market for bitcoin is entering a new phase—one that is more complex and ambiguous. For traders and investors, this signals that it could be less reliable to anticipate market moves simply by looking at historical patterns.

This developing cycle may mirror wider shifts in the crypto ecosystem, such as the following:

– Institutional investment is maturing.

– Regulatory developments are under way.

– We are integrating Bitcoin into diversified portfolios of asset classes.

These are three dimensions of the crypto ecosystem in which Bitcoin potentially sees increasing market participation. We also need to look at the retail side, which is significant in encompasses:

– ETF participation.

– More retail investing across the space.

Altogether, these dimensions add several layers of nuance to the Bitcoin market that can either dampen or amplify price moves independent of holder activity.

Participants in the market should be ready for heightened volatility and price movements that are less predictable as these new forces interact. While the long-term fundamental bullish story for Bitcoin remains intact, the pathway may not follow the neat, textbook accumulation-distribution patterns we have seen in the past. Instead, it seems investors may need to adopt a more nuanced strategy-combining on-chain metrics, ETF flow analysis, the Bitcoin Sentiment Indicator and, just for old friends’ sake, our trusty Days Destroyed chart in what is now a more fragmented and multi-faceted market environment.

To sum up, what we see in Bitcoin’s cycle now is that it is changing to something new.

We call it—in absence of a better term—the sideways cycle, where holders on both scales, long and short, seem to be engaged in (in the best case) a kind of equilibrated economy and (in the worst case) in an underground economy where a mere 10 percent is said to control up to 98 percent of the effects you can work if you want to engage in a transformative digital economy. Also affecting Bitcoin’s price in this sideways cycle is a record number of ETF inflows that represent the institutional side of that same economy.

Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ May 27, 2025 5:10 am