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Lee Jae-myung is leading S. Korea’s presidential race with a 96.8% chance on Polymarket. The June 3 election is pivotal for crypto policy; 36% of eligible S. Korean voters own crypto. Candidates propose pro-crypto measures like spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved bank access. Lee Jae-myung is emerging as a frontrunner for South Korea’s 2025 presidential election, according to trader sentiment on Polymarket. As of this press time, the Democratic Party candidate is leading at 96.8% per share, reflecting a 96.8% market-implied chance of victory. Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users bet real money on future events. Each “Yes” share pays out $1 if the event occurs and nothing if it does not. The closer the price is to $1, the higher the market’s confidence in that outcome. Meanwhile, the pricing does not reflect polling or vote share. A common misconception is that a 97-cent “Yes” price equates to 97% of expected votes. In reality, the figure reflects the collective probability, as perceived by market participants, that Lee will win the election. For example, even if a candidate is expected to win narrowly, a high “Yes” price could still apply if traders believe the outcome is all but certain. Related: South Korea Targets Crypto Money Laundering with New Customer Verification Measures Other potential candidates lag significantly in the market. Kim Moon-soo, associated with the People Power Party, has a 3.2% chance of winning, while Lee Jun-seok of the Reform Party trails with just 0.6%. As of now, more than $173 million has been wagered across all candidates.  What Does This Mean to the South Korean Crypto Market? The upcoming South Korean presidential election, scheduled for June 3, 2025, could be pivotal for the country’s cryptocurrency industry. With more than 16 million South Koreans, roughly 36% of eligible voters invested…

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Filed under: News - @ May 30, 2025 10:19 pm