Nvidia Corp. ($NVDA) Stock: AI Demand, China Risks, and Market Dominance Shape Outlook
TLDR
Nvidia ($NVDA) closed at $141.72 on June 6, up 1.24%, buoyed by demand for inference chips.
The firm reported Q1 FY25 earnings of $0.81 per share on $44.1B in revenue, topping sales expectations.
Market share in GPUs surged to 92%, while AMD and Intel lost ground.
Jensen Huang plans to sell $800M in Nvidia shares under a scheduled plan.
U.S.-China trade frictions and export bans on H20 chips remain risks.
Nvidia Corp. ($NVDA) rose 1.24% to close at $141.72 on June 6, as strong demand for inference chips helped offset ongoing rivalry with Broadcom (AVGO) and geopolitical tension with China. Nvidia recently became the world’s most valuable company, surpassing Microsoft and Apple, with a $3.45 trillion market cap.
In Q1 FY25, Nvidia posted earnings per share of $0.81, a 33% increase year over year, on $44.1 billion in revenue, a 69% surge. Analysts had expected $0.88 per share on $43.2 billion in revenue. Nvidia expects $45 billion in sales next quarter despite writing off $8 billion tied to U.S. export restrictions on H20 chips.
Trade Turbulence and Tariff Uncertainty
Tensions between the U.S. and China escalated after President Trump accused Beijing of violating a trade truce. Though chips were exempted from a recent 125% tariff hike on China, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted that semiconductor tariffs could follow. Nvidia is hedging risk by building AI supercomputers and manufacturing Blackwell chips in Arizona and Texas, with mass production planned in 12–15 months.
Huang acknowledged during the GTC conference in March that near-term impact from tariffs would be limited. Still, the company wrote off $5.5 billion in Q1 tied to the blocked China market and expects more losses in Q2. China’s AI market is projected to reach $50 billion within three years, making access critical for Nvidia.
Broad AI Capex Fueling Growth
AI infrastructure spending from Big Tech firms like Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet is sustaining Nvidia’s momentum. Amazon’s Q1 capex jumped to $24.3 billion, with Alphabet maintaining its $75 billion plan. Meta and Microsoft also beat earnings expectations, increasing AI-related expenditures.
Despite a Seaport Research downgrade in April and a $100 target due to deployment complexity and concerns over 2026 AI spending, Nvidia remains widely held by institutional funds. Its Accumulation/Distribution Rating of C suggests neutral sentiment.
GPU Market Leadership Widens
Jon Peddie Research shows Nvidia’s GPU market share grew 8% to 92% in Q1 2025. AMD fell to 8%, while Intel dropped out entirely. New product launches, such as the RTX 5090 and 5080, boosted Nvidia’s dominance. Data center GPU sales also rose 9.6% sequentially, highlighting continued enterprise demand despite export limitations.
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Filed under: News - @ June 8, 2025 7:25 am