Sui (SUI) Price: Raoul Pal’s $22 Target Faces Reality Check
TLDR
Sui (SUI) price increased over 4% in 24 hours despite broader crypto market decline
$119 million worth of SUI tokens will be unlocked next week, representing 56% of all scheduled unlocks
The unlock represents only 1.16% of SUI’s circulating supply, potentially limiting price impact
Raoul Pal projects SUI could reach $22 if it matches Solana’s market cap, though recent performance lags SOL
Sui’s DEX volume dropped 50% in June to $7 billion after hitting $14 billion in May
Sui (SUI) has gained over 4% in the past 24 hours, defying the broader cryptocurrency market decline. The Layer-1 blockchain token is preparing for a major token unlock event scheduled for next week.
The Sui network will release $119 million worth of tokens into circulation on Monday. This represents the largest portion of next week’s total unlocks across all cryptocurrency projects.
The unlock volume accounts for 56% of the $212 million in total token releases scheduled for the week. Other projects participating in unlocks include Optimism with $16 million, Kamino Finance with $12 million, and Artificial Superintelligence with $2 million.
Despite the large dollar amount, the SUI unlock represents only 1.16% of its current circulating supply. This relatively small percentage suggests the price impact may be limited.
Token unlocks typically create selling pressure as new supply enters the market. Large cliff unlocks can negatively affect token prices due to supply and demand imbalances.
SUI currently faces technical resistance near the $2.88 level, which coincides with its 100-day Simple Moving Average. The token is also trading within a descending channel pattern.
Technical Analysis Shows Mixed Signals
A breakout above $2.88 and the descending channel resistance could push SUI toward $3.55. However, failure to break resistance may lead to a decline toward the $2.29 support level.
The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator indicators are below neutral levels but showing upward trends. This suggests weakening bearish momentum in the short term.
Raoul Pal, founder of Real Vision, maintains a bullish long-term outlook for SUI. He projects the token could become a top-five performer in 2025.
Longer term… pic.twitter.com/qNoIau2Hmk
— Raoul Pal (@RaoulGMI) June 26, 2025
Pal expects SUI to consolidate below $3.50 before a potential breakout if Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. He believes SUI will outperform once Bitcoin breaks to new highs.
CoinGecko noted that if SUI reached Solana’s market cap of $77 billion, the token could be valued at $22.90. This would represent an 8x increase from current levels.
Performance Comparison with Solana
However, SUI has underperformed Solana by 26% since May 2025. The SUI/SOL ratio shows SUI trailing behind its main competitor in recent months.
Source: TradingView
In late April, SUI outperformed Solana by 56%. The performance gap has since reversed, favoring Solana holders over SUI investors.
The SUI/SOL ratio is currently testing critical support at 0.0158. If this level holds, traders could see another 50% rebound in relative performance.
Sui’s decentralized exchange volume contributed to its Q2 recovery. Monthly DEX volume reached $11 billion in April, up from $7 billion in March.
Source: DefiLlama
May saw record DEX volume of $14.12 billion, coinciding with SUI’s price peak of $4.20. The strong DeFi activity drove demand for SUI tokens used for transaction fees.
June brought a cooldown in DeFi activity, with DEX volume dropping 50% to $7 billion. This decline coincided with SUI’s price falling from over $4 to $2.20.
Despite the recent slowdown, technical analysis suggests SUI is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle pattern. This formation often precedes breakout moves in either direction.
The token unlock scheduled for Monday will test SUI’s ability to maintain its recent gains. The relatively small percentage of circulating supply being unlocked may limit downward pressure.
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Filed under: News - @ June 28, 2025 10:28 am