The Fed is deeply divided over when and how much to cut interest rates
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The Federal Reserve is no longer speaking with one voice, breaking the hearts of economic nerds everywhere. The minutes from the June 17–18 meeting show real cracks opening up inside the room, with policymakers clashing over how soon, and how deep, interest rate cuts should go. Everyone agreed to hold rates steady at 4.25% to 4.5%, but what came next showed that consensus is slipping fast. According to the Federal Reserve minutes released Wednesday, officials disagreed over whether the next step should be aggressive rate cuts to fight slowing growth or a cautious hold due to inflation risks from Trump’s tariffs. The majority backed at least one cut later this year, calling the inflation from tariffs “temporary and modest.” But a smaller group thought inflation was still too high to risk easing, especially with the economy showing strength in some areas. Officials push conflicting rate timelines A “couple” of Fed members said they were ready to cut rates as early as this month. Others argued there should be no cuts at all in 2025. The minutes didn’t attach names to these views, but Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller have already gone public. Both said they’d support a cut at the next Fed meeting on July 29–30, if inflation doesn’t spike again. Meanwhile, “several” officials warned the current rate might already be close to a neutral level. That means there might only be room for a few small cuts. They pointed to inflation still sitting above the 2% goal and said the economy is still showing signs of resilience. The Fed’s internal projections expect two cuts this year, with three more across the next two years. But the dot plot, which shows individual policymakers’ views, is all over the place. Some want deeper cuts. Others think the Fed should stay on…
Filed under: News - @ July 9, 2025 8:31 pm