Stocks move higher after July jobs report dip
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This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. It’s bounce-back day on Wall Street after Friday’s jobs report-fueled dip. After the first three hours of trading Monday morning, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes were up 1.3% and 1.8%, respectively. I’m not shocked to see things back in the green, but I’m curious as to how long the rally may last. Investors are going to be watching for any additional fallout from the July jobs report. As a reminder, Friday’s release showed the economy added just 73,000 new positions last month (compared with expectations for 104,000). May and June also received significant downward revisions (a combined -258,000 positions), marking the biggest revision since 2020. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.2%. The numbers were not good for stocks, although the report did help boost expectations of a September interest rate cut from the Fed. Chair Powell has stressed in the past that he’s primarily concerned with the unemployment rate as opposed to the number of positions added. Last week’s Fed decision (in which it opted to once again hold interest rates steady) came with an addendum we haven’t seen in decades: a double dissent. JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli called the two dissenting opinions in last week’s Fed decision (from Governors Waller and Bowman) a “job application,” and I’d have to agree. With Powell’s term set to expire next May (and Trump’s vocal distaste for Powell), the position is up for grabs. Here’s an excerpt from Waller’s opinion: “While the labor market looks fine on the surface, once we account for expected data revisions, private-sector payroll growth is near stall speed, and other data suggest that the downside risks to the labor market have increased. With underlying inflation near target and the…
Filed under: News - @ August 4, 2025 8:23 pm