The post Bitcoin Price Not Tied to Halvings Anymore, But Something Else appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Key Notes Bitcoin’s market cycles are no longer centered around halvings. Adoption, market structure, and institutional activity drive today’s cycles. Exchange inflows are at historic lows, signaling reduced selling pressure. For years, Bitcoin BTC $110 821 24h volatility: 0.7% Market cap: $2.21 T Vol. 24h: $39.34 B maxis assumed that halving events were the defining milestones of the market’s cycles. Each four-year cut in mining rewards was believed to trigger supply shocks and set the stage for explosive bull markets. However, new analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s price is no longer primarily tied to halvings. Instead, broader adoption trends, market structure, and institutional activity appear to be the real drivers of long-term cycles. Beyond the Halving Narrative On-chain analyst James Check said that Bitcoin has experienced three major cycles so far, none of which align neatly with halving events. He identified the first as the “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018, dominated by retail participants. The second, the “adolescence cycle” from 2018 to 2022, was defined by speculative leverage and volatile boom-and-bust phases. In my opinion, Bitcoin has experienced three cycles, and they are not anchored around the halvings. They are anchored around the trends in adoption and market structure, with the 2017 top, and 2022 bottom being the transition points🔴 Retail early adoption🟠 Wild West, Boom &… pic.twitter.com/3rbUUpnwen — _Checkmate 🟠🔑⚡☢️🛢️ (@_Checkmatey_) August 26, 2025 The current phase, beginning after the 2022 bear market, is the “maturity cycle,” which reflects greater institutional involvement and a more stable market structure. Check pointed out that the real inflection points were the 2017 peak and the 2022 bottom. Both moments marked shifts in adoption and maturity rather than direct links to halving events. Investors who continue to anchor expectations to the halving schedule may be missing the bigger picture. Evidence From MVRV and…

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Filed under: News - @ August 27, 2025 10:25 am