El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket
The post El Salvador’s $1B Bitcoin Holdings Bet Hits Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
El Salvador President Nayib Bukele called attention to prediction markets amid increasing bets that the country’s Bitcoin holdings will hit $1 billion by year-end. Bukele took to X on Wednesday to tweet about Kalshi’s prediction market, which shows increasing betting activity on El Salvador’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings hitting $1 billion by late 2025. “I could do the funniest thing right now,” Bukele said, as the odds of El Salvador hitting a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone before November jumped from 20% to 38% on Kalshi. Soon after Bukele’s post, rival platform Polymarket listed a similar bet, where the odds of a $1 billion Bitcoin milestone by December 2025 stood at 43%. Kalshi tracking the odds since mid-August Kalshi’s prediction market on El Salvador’s $1 billion Bitcoin holdings has been active since mid-August, with the “before December 2025” bet holding near 24% and “before November 2025” hovering around 18% until the last few days. Following the spike to as high as 38%, the “before November 2025” bet dropped to 27%, while the “before December 2025” bet hovered around 35%. Kalshi’s prediction market on “When will El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings be worth $1 billion?” Source: Kalshi While Kalshi had been tracking the odds of El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings reaching $1 billion for several days, rival platform Polymarket only introduced a similar market following Bukele’s tweet. Related: Bitcoin investment banks coming to El Salvador — Gov regulator “New Polymarket: Will El Salvador hold $1 billion of Bitcoin by…?” the platform posted on X just hours after Bukele highlighted Kalshi’s market on Thursday. Polymarket introduced a betting market “Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by…?” on Wednesday. Source: Polymarket Cointelegraph approached Kalshi and Polymarket for comments regarding the market listing policies, but had not received any responses by the time of publication. Controversy around…
Filed under: News - @ August 29, 2025 3:26 am