Morning Minute: Is Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle Over?
The post Morning Minute: Is Crypto’s 4-Year Cycle Over? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Morning Minute is a daily newsletter written by Tyler Warner. The analysis and opinions expressed are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of Decrypt. Subscribe to the Morning Minute on Substack. GM! Today’s top news: Crypto majors slightly lower; Bitcoin at $121,500 ZEC continues to lead top movers, up 19% to $230 JPMorgan says SOL ETFs will attract less demand than BTC & ETH Roger Ver agrees to pay $48M to end crypto tax fraud case Aster airdrop portal opens today ahead of 14th airdrop date; Monad opens portal on the 14th 💸 Arthur Hayes Says The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead One of the most important and imminent questions for crypto investors – is the 4-year cycle over? Arthur Hayes says yes. 📌 What Happened In hist latest blog “Long Live the King,” Hayes reviews prior peaks and busts and says they coincided with tightening or easing of fiat liquidity, not the halving date itself. His core thesis is that 2014, 2018 and 2022 drawdowns tracked monetary tightening, while expansions coincided with bull phases. Looking forward to 2025, he believes that with policy tilting easier and spot-ETF demand now a structural bid, the market’s path should be governed by liquidity cycles. Which means shallower, liquidity-driven pullbacks rather than a time-boxed bear market. 🗣️ What They’re Saying “Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!” – Arthur Hayes in “Long Live the King” 🧠 Why It Matters While Hayes can often be verbose and at times hard to follow, his argument in this blog post cuts pretty straight to the point. He specifically calls out bullish liquidity drivers including: Trump stating he wants…
Filed under: News - @ October 12, 2025 10:27 am