AI infrastructure risks mount as NVDA, MSFT and GOOG diverge
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Investors aren’t turning cautious on AI because of headlines. They’re reacting to something deeper: the capital and energy demands behind the AI boom now look difficult to sustain. The concern isn’t about innovation. It’s about the infrastructure needed to power it. AI labs are committing trillions to data centres, chip supply, and power capacity. Utilities are pushing back. Chip depreciation cycles are tightening. Financing structures behind the boom now look stretched. This has created the first real wobble in the AI rally in months. Even so, the technical picture isn’t uniformly bearish. Some leaders are still healthy. Others are flashing early warnings. NVIDIA: Oversold enough for a bounce, but not the strongest name anymore NVDA is at a tactically important level. Price sits beneath the EMA-20 Bollinger band with an oversold Stoch RSI signal, the same combination that triggered every major NVDA rebound during the 2025 AI rally. Historically, NVDA reclaimed the EMA-20 quickly and rode the upper half of the band higher. Today, that reclaim is missing. This is the difference between a normal pullback and the start of a deeper unwind. January showed the pattern clearly: break below the band. fail to reclaim. grind lower for weeks. We are back at the same setup. A bounce is likely, but NVDA only recovers its trend if it breaks and holds above the top of the orange band. If it fails at the band again, the structure weakens. NVDA is no longer the cleanest of the leaders. Microsoft: Oversold, near VAL, and the weakest of the big three Microsoft mirrors NVDA’s weakness, but with even less strength behind it. MSFT is sitting near the Rally VAL and testing the lower boundary of the entire AI rally structure. Price is still suppressed by the EMA-20. Historically, when MSFT breaks below the…
Filed under: News - @ November 26, 2025 5:29 pm