After weeks of bearish pressure, XRP’s recent rebound has reignited short-term optimism across the market. Traders are now closely watching whether this recovery has enough strength to challenge key overhead resistance or if sellers will regain control.

XRP Rebounds From Channel Lows as Market Tests Key Support

XRP’s price, near $2.20 at the time of writing, shows a bounce from the lower boundary of a multi-month descending channel. Based on a review of XRP’s 3-day chart on TradingView, the asset has recovered from long-standing support, demonstrating cautious upside potential.

XRP has rebounded from the lower boundary of its channel, signaling a potential move toward the $2.60 midpoint. Source: Ali Martinez via X

Ali Martinez, a well-followed on-chain analyst with a track record of macro-level charting, notes:

“XRP bounced off the bottom of the channel and could be heading toward the midpoint around $2.60.”

Market data from CoinMarketCap indicates that XRP gained roughly 16% over the past 24 hours, briefly touching $2.25 before easing slightly. The price action followed a steady defense of the $2.00–$2.14 area, which traders consider a critical demand zone for short-term stability.

Why it matters: Holding the $2.14 support suggests that XRP could consolidate before attempting further gains, while a breach might signal renewed downward pressure.

Short-Term Charts Signal Cautious Optimism

On lower timeframes, XRP is moving within an ascending channel, indicating a short-term bullish structure. The price remains above the 100-period moving average (MA), often interpreted as a signal of developing upward momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching a breakout from its own downtrend line, suggesting potential near-term strength.

XRP is holding above the 100-period moving average within an ascending channel, with $2.14 as key support and upside targets at $2.21, $2.28, and $2.35. Source: CryptoAnalystSig on TradingView

Technical significance of key levels:

$2.14: Critical short-term support; breach may trigger further declines.

$2.21, $2.28, $2.35: Incremental resistance targets based on prior swing highs.

$2.60: Mid-channel resistance aligned with longer-term trendline.

Limitations: Moving averages and RSI can lag during volatile periods, so traders should use them in conjunction with broader market context rather than as guarantees of price movement.

Broader Trend Still Faces Downward Pressure

Despite the bounce, XRP remains beneath a multi-month descending trendline that has rejected rallies since July. On the daily chart, XRP trades below major exponential moving averages (EMAs):

20-day EMA: ~$2.20

50-day EMA: ~$2.37

100-day and 200-day EMAs: ~$2.52

According to Coinalyze, repeated rejections in the mid-$2.20s indicate persistent selling pressure. The long-term trendline near $2.60 remains the defining technical barrier separating recovery from continuation of the downtrend.

Implication: A confirmed break above $2.60 would mark a meaningful technical shift, while failure to breach resistance could prolong consolidation or downward movement.

Spot and Derivatives Data Reflect Defensive Positioning

According to Glassnode and Coinalyze, weekly spot outflows for XRP have ranged between $15M and $50M over the past month. A recent modest $450,000 inflow was insufficient to offset broader selling trends. Futures open interest has slipped below $4B, with trading volume and options activity declining. Large exchanges report mostly balanced long-short ratios, suggesting traders are hesitant to commit to directional bets.

Why it matters: Declining open interest and subdued volume indicate reduced speculative pressure and a market currently driven by organic trading rather than forced liquidations.

Regulatory Developments Continue to Shape Sentiment

XRP remains sensitive to regulatory developments surrounding Ripple’s ongoing legal case in the United States. Some recent rulings have clarified certain aspects of XRP’s status under U.S. securities law, but several issues remain unresolved. Market participants are watching for updates that could influence institutional participation or long-term valuation.

Additionally, discussions of potential institutional exposure, such as a speculative Grayscale XRP ETF, have generated interest, but no formal approvals have materially altered market dynamics.

Takeaway: Regulatory outcomes are a source of uncertainty and can significantly affect price action. Any forecasts should be considered speculative and contingent on these developments.

Outlook: Can XRP Convert Support Into a Breakout?

XRP’s near-term trajectory depends on whether it can sustain trading above $2.14 and reclaim the $2.37–$2.52 EMA cluster. A confirmed breach of $2.60 would signal a potential move toward $2.80. Conversely, if bullish momentum fades, $2.00 is the immediate downside pivot, followed by a deeper support near $1.88.

XRP was trading at around 2.17, down 1.42% in the last 24 hours at press time. Source: XRP price via Brave New Coin

Risk reminder: All price forecasts are speculative, based on historical chart patterns and current market conditions. Unexpected macro events, liquidity shifts, or regulatory news could invalidate any scenario.

---

Filed under: Bitcoin - @ November 26, 2025 7:26 pm