TLDR:

Fed’s quantitative tightening shift redirects MBS runoff into Treasuries, altering liquidity flows.
About 7B dollars in MBS maturities last week sets a baseline for monthly reinvestments.
Redirected demand may ease Treasury yields and free institutional liquidity for other assets.
Crypto markets track liquidity rotations closely due to their influence on trading conditions.

The Federal Reserve’s plan to end quantitative tightening on 1 December 2025 introduces a major shift for global markets. The move follows a balance-sheet reduction that began after the pandemic-era expansion peaked in 2022. 

The Fed grew its holdings to about 8.9 trillion dollars during the crisis response, then trimmed that figure to roughly 6.5 trillion dollars by late November 2025. The new phase now changes how runoff from mortgage-backed securities will be handled.

Quantitative Tightening Pivot Redirects Fed Balance-Sheet Flows

The transition marks a break from the standard QT approach that guided the past few years. Under that framework, the Fed allowed Treasuries, MBS, and other assets to mature without reinvestment. 

Data shared by Thorsten Froehlich shows the central bank held about 4.2 trillion dollars in Treasuries and 2.2 trillion dollars in MBS before this month’s shift. The new policy redirects principal payments from maturing MBS into fresh Treasury purchases.

This change does not recreate the pandemic-era bond-buying wave. It introduces a targeted flow that increases demand for U.S. government debt while shrinking MBS exposure. 

The added competition in the Treasury market may ease pressure on yields and absorb supply during the coming issuance cycle. That redirection also frees liquidity that institutional investors can deploy into other assets, including crypto.

Data referenced in Froehlich’s post noted that roughly 7 billion dollars in MBS matured between 17 and 26 November. Using that range as a guide, the monthly total could reach about 30 billion dollars. 

Market participants are now watching how this recurring flow influences Treasury pricing through December. The structure resembles synthetic easing rather than full quantitative stimulus.

Liquidity Reallocation Creates New Market Dynamics

The policy shift arrives during a period of rising demand for alternative assets. 

Crypto markets often react to changes in liquidity conditions, especially when Treasury yields begin to cool. Investors track these developments because shifts in dollar liquidity can influence trading volumes and risk appetite. A steadier Treasury market can also reduce funding strain across leveraged positions.

Analysts following the Fed’s balance-sheet path expect the December adjustment to influence cross-market capital allocation. The mechanics differ from QE, yet the effect still increases the pace of cash recycling within the system. 

Market desks are preparing for the first reinvestment flows to appear early in the month. Crypto traders are watching for short-term shifts in sentiment tied to this renewed liquidity channel.

The full impact will depend on how consistently the Fed redirects MBS runoff in the months following December. Early flows will guide expectations for 2026 positioning. The market now approaches the shift with attention on Treasury demand, liquidity rotation, and trading conditions across digital assets.

The post Quantitative Tightening Shift Signals Fresh Liquidity Ahead of December Pivot appeared first on Blockonomi.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ November 30, 2025 5:19 am