The post Bitcoin Analyst Sees 96% Positive Performance Odds for BTC Price in 2026 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin (BTC) has been in a downtrend since early October, with the price dropping below its network value, suggesting a possible recovery in 2026. Key takeaways: Bitcoin price dropped below its fair value, a setup that has historically preceded positive one-year returns.  Strengthening network activity suggests robust adoption beyond speculation. Bitcoin spot CVD flipped positive, signalling renewed buy-side activity. Bitcoin’s network value hints at BTC price recovery Bitcoin price is trading 31.4% below its $126,000 all-time high reached on Oct. 6, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.  This drawdown has seen the BTC price drop below its network value (Metcalfe) for the first time in two years, a setup that has historically predicted Bitcoin recoveries with accuracy, according to economist Timothy Peterson.  Related: Bitcoin battles $50K price target as Fed adds $13.5B overnight liquidity Bitcoin’s Metcalfe Value is the theoretical fair price derived from Metcalfe’s Law, which states that the BTC price rises in correlation with the growth of active addresses and transactions, i.e., network value. This means that the more wallets and transactions there are, the higher the fair price of Bitcoin. This divergence signals Bitcoin is undervalued relative to its expanding network (e.g., active addresses), often after speculative excess. “While this does not necessarily signal a bottom, it does indicate that most leverage has been removed and the ‘bubble’ has deflated,” Peterson said in an X post on Tuesday, adding: “Price to Metcalfe Value has been a good indicator of future performance. On any given day, when price is below the Metcalfe, performance is positive one year later 96% of the time.” BTC price vs. Metcalfe Value. Source: Timothy Peterson Notably, when the BTC/USD pair dropped below its fair value in 2019 and 2020, the price saw significant price recoveries in the months that followed.…

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Filed under: News - @ December 3, 2025 2:29 am