The post With a sub‑30% underwater supply, Bitcoin price actions now looks eerily like early 2022 appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin just spent two straight weeks sliding into a zone traders respect and fear at the same time. Price dropped toward the True Market Mean, the cost basis of all active coins minus miners, and then held there. According to Glassnode, that level splits light bear phases from deep bear markets. For now, price is sitting just above it. The structure around it now matches what showed up in Q1 2022 almost tick for tick. Spot price moved under the 0.75 supply quantile in mid‑November and now trades near $96.1K, putting more than 25% of total supply underwater. At the same time, sellers may already be worn out. The line that changes everything is still the 0.85 quantile near $106.2K. Until price takes that level back, macro shocks keep full control of direction. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin’s Net Change in Realized Cap reads +$8.69B per month, which is pretty weak compared to the $64.3B per month peak in July, but it is not exactly negative either. As long as this stays above zero, price can still build a base instead of falling apart. Meanwhile, long‑term investors continue to sell into strength, but at shrinking margins, with the Long‑Term Holder SOPR (30D‑SMA) stands at 1.43. Derivatives and options reset risk across the board Spot demand now looks lighter. U.S. Bitcoin ETFs flipped into net outflows across November on a three‑day average basis. The steady inflow that supported price earlier this year is gone. Outflows hit many issuers at once. Institutions pulled back as market pressure built. That leaves price more exposed to outside shocks. At the same time, Cumulative Volume Delta turned negative on Binance and across the aggregate exchange group. That signals steady taker selling. Coinbase flattened as well. That removed a key sign of U.S. bid strength. With…

---

Filed under: News - @ December 4, 2025 12:15 am