Broadcom (AVGO) Stock: Drops After Investors Seek Bigger AI Payoff

TLDRs;

Broadcom shares fell nearly 2% as investors seek clearer AI revenue guidance for 2026.
CEO Hock Tan reports $73 billion AI backlog but avoids giving annual revenue forecast.
Strong AI demand boosts earnings, yet margin concerns weigh on market sentiment.
Broadcom remains a key AI chip supplier despite temporary investor disappointment.

Shares of Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) slid nearly 2% on Friday after investors expressed concerns over the company’s timeline for monetizing its AI business.

Despite reporting strong quarterly earnings that beat Wall Street estimates, market participants were seeking a clearer picture of when the company will see tangible financial benefits from its rapidly growing AI segment.

Broadcom Inc., AVGO

CEO Hock Tan highlighted a $73 billion backlog in AI product orders but stopped short of providing a full annual revenue forecast, describing 2026 as a “moving target.”

The drop came after a brief surge in extended trading following Broadcom’s earnings announcement. While the company posted first-quarter sales projections of $19.1 billion, surpassing analysts’ estimates of $18.5 billion, the lack of precise AI guidance triggered investor caution. “It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly what ’26 will look like,” Tan remarked during a conference call, emphasizing that the backlog figure represents a minimum expectation.

AI backlog boosts revenue, but margins tighten

Broadcom’s backlog largely consists of orders for custom AI semiconductors and XPU-based AI racks, with major clients including Anthropic and other undisclosed hyperscale cloud providers. The company reported an $11 billion order from Anthropic in Q4, following a $10 billion order in Q3. Tan also noted a separate $1 billion order, though he declined to identify the customer.

Despite the surge in AI orders, profit margins are under pressure. Analysts at Morningstar explained that gross margins may narrow due to the higher mix of AI revenue, even though the AI chips themselves remain margin-accretive.

Broadcom’s semiconductor segment, which contributed $9.2 billion in Q3 revenue, grew 26% year-over-year, with AI-specific semiconductors accounting for $5.2 billion, a 63% increase from the previous year.

Earnings beat expectations but AI trade hesitates

Broadcom’s strong financial performance did little to immediately revive the broader AI trade, which has recently shown signs of cooling amid concerns over lofty valuations and delayed payoffs. Oracle’s underwhelming results in the previous session contributed to short-term tech sector volatility.

Still, Broadcom topped Q4 revenue forecasts with $18.02 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $1.95, surpassing analysts’ expectations of $1.88.

CEO Tan reassured investors that momentum from AI demand would continue into the first quarter, projecting AI semiconductor revenue to double year-over-year to $8.2 billion. The company’s infrastructure software division, including VMware, also continues to grow, helping offset pressures from AI margin dilution.

Broadcom’s strategic position remains strong

Despite the temporary market setback, Broadcom continues to secure a pivotal role in the AI semiconductor ecosystem. The company helps design and manufacture Google’s Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and has entered a multiyear agreement with OpenAI to supply 10 gigawatts of Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs).

These ASICs provide an energy-efficient alternative to Nvidia’s dominant GPUs in data centers supporting AI services like ChatGPT and Gemini.

Analysts remain bullish on Broadcom’s long-term prospects. Morgan Stanley recently raised its price target to $443, while Jefferies and Melius Research suggested upside of more than 40%, citing strong demand for custom AI chips and increasing adoption of multimodal AI models.

While investors may need patience for full AI revenue realization, Broadcom’s entrenched position in data center infrastructure and AI hardware makes it a key player in the sector.

Conclusion

Broadcom’s near-term stock drop underscores market impatience for immediate AI profits. While strong earnings and a record AI backlog highlight robust demand, investors are wary of margin pressures and the absence of a full-year AI forecast.

Nonetheless, the company’s partnerships, ASIC offerings, and expanding presence in hyperscale data centers indicate a solid foundation for long-term growth in the AI space.

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