Rising deficits, inflation and fiscal disputes push US borrowing costs toward multi‑year highs
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A long stretch of high yields in long-term bonds is lifting borrowing costs across the world, and the United States is carrying one of the heaviest loads. Investors want extra pay to hold government debt because they see big deficits, firm inflation, and louder fights over central bank independence. Yields on long-dated debt have climbed back to levels last seen in 2009, and traders say this shift is tied to expectations that the cycle of rate cuts is almost done and could soon flip to new hikes in some countries. Investors are worried that politicians do not have plans, or the power, to fix public finances, and they warn that persistent price pressure could limit how central banks react. Traders who move long-term notes say the appeal depends on fixed payments that stretch across decades, and the longer that money sits out there, the more can go wrong. Bonds with terms of 10 to 100 years offer higher interest than short-term bills to make up for that risk. When an economy weakens, yields usually fall because investors expect lower policy rates and smaller returns in stocks. Lately, the US has broken that pattern. The economy is not booming, but it is strong enough to lift share prices to records, while inflation has run hotter than forecasts, and that has pushed long-term yields higher. Governments face pressure as debt climbs Global debt hit $324 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, according to the Institute of International Finance. China, France and Germany led the jump. Governments borrowed heavily after the 2008 financial crisis, then borrowed again during the pandemic. That spree was easy when interest rates sat near zero. It got harder when inflation spiked and central banks lifted policy rates. Many of them also slowed or reversed their quantitative easing…
Filed under: News - @ December 13, 2025 5:19 pm