The post Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Now Driven by Politics, Not Halving: Analyst appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year cycle is still playing out, but the forces behind it have shifted away from the halving toward politics and liquidity, according to Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research. Speaking on The Wolf Of All Streets Podcast, Thielen argued that the idea of the four-year cycle being “broken” misses the point. In his view, the cycle remains intact, but it is no longer dictated by Bitcoin (BTC)’s programmed supply cuts. Instead, it is increasingly shaped by US election timelines, central bank policy and the flow of capital into risk assets. Thielen pointed to historical market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, all of which occurred in the fourth quarter. Those peaks, he said, align more closely with presidential election cycles and broader political uncertainty than with the timing of Bitcoin halvings, which have shifted throughout the calendar over the years. “There’s this uncertainty that the sitting president’s party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that’s also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the House, and therefore, maybe he’s not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” he said. Markus Thielen says four-year cycle is not dead. Source: The Wolf Of All Streets Related: Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead Fed rate cut fails to boost Bitcoin The comments come as Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum following the Federal Reserve’s latest rate cut. While rate cuts have historically supported risk assets, Thielen noted that the current environment is different. Institutional investors, now the dominant force in crypto markets, are more cautious, especially as policy signals from the Fed remain mixed and liquidity conditions tighten. Furthermore, capital inflows into Bitcoin have slowed compared with last year,…

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Filed under: News - @ December 14, 2025 11:25 am