Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, has once again sparked controversy by predicting that Bitcoin could fall to $10,000 next year. According to McGlone, a broader market crash could drag Bitcoin sharply lower, particularly as the cryptocurrency allegedly lacks fresh bullish catalysts. The question many investors are asking now is whether this forecast should be taken seriously.

McGlone’s Latest Bitcoin Forecast

McGlone has been known for making bold Bitcoin calls for years—some incorrect, others remarkably accurate.

In February 2018, when Bitcoin was trading near $10,000, McGlone warned that the price could “lose a zero” and fall to $1,000. While Bitcoin never dropped that far, it did bottom out just above $3,000 later that year.

He has also delivered successful bullish forecasts. In October 2020, with Bitcoin again trading near $10,000, McGlone predicted that BTC would reach $100,000 within five years—a target that ultimately materialized.

In recent months, however, McGlone has returned to a bearish stance. He now expects Bitcoin to revisit $10,000, implying a decline of nearly 90% from current levels.

McGlone argues that many anticipated bullish developments—such as spot Bitcoin ETFs, growing political support in the U.S., and broader mainstream adoption—have already played out. At the same time, he points to what he describes as an “inflation” of crypto assets, noting that more than 28 million cryptocurrencies are now listed on CoinMarketCap, compared to just one in 2009.

He has further compared the current crypto market to the dot-com bubble of 1999, suggesting excessive speculation across digital assets.

Broader Market Risks and Gold as a Warning Signal

McGlone’s pessimism extends beyond Bitcoin. He is broadly bearish on global financial markets, citing elevated equity market valuations relative to economic output. He also views the strength of gold as an early warning signal for a larger systemic downturn.

In a recent interview with David Lin, McGlone reiterated his thesis, stating that crypto markets are now increasingly dependent on governments and regulatory frameworks. He argued that this marks a fundamental shift compared to earlier cycles, when Bitcoin operated more independently of state influence.

“I made the same call in 2018—that Bitcoin would lose a zero,” McGlone said. “From $10,000 it fell to $3,000. I think the first stop is around $50,000, but ultimately I believe it goes to $10,000.”

Is a $10,000 Bitcoin a Realistic Scenario?

McGlone is a respected analyst, and his views cannot be dismissed simply as those of a perpetual Bitcoin skeptic. His history includes both bearish and bullish calls, some of which proved correct.

That said, many market participants question the underlying logic of his current forecast. The developments McGlone views as exhausted catalysts—ETF approvals, political acceptance, and institutional adoption—can also be interpreted as having raised Bitcoin’s structural floor. A full U.S. ban on Bitcoin, once a major fear, is now largely off the table. Instead, major financial institutions such as Vanguard and JPMorgan are increasingly engaging with the asset class, while some countries are exploring Bitcoin reserve strategies.

Moreover, Bitcoin is not fundamentally dependent on any single government. While U.S. policy can influence short-term price action, no administration has proven capable of controlling Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory. Similar claims were made in 2021, when critics argued that Bitcoin’s price was driven by Elon Musk’s tweets—an argument that has since lost credibility.

The growing number of cryptocurrencies also does not necessarily dilute Bitcoin’s value. On the contrary, Bitcoin dominance—BTC’s share of total crypto market capitalization—has continued to rise, underscoring its unique position as the market’s anchor asset.

Historical Context: How Deep Could a Bitcoin Bear Market Go?

A severe global market crash could still drag Bitcoin lower. Notably, since Bitcoin’s inception in 2009, the world has not experienced a prolonged systemic financial crisis comparable to 2008. Even during the COVID-19 crash, markets rebounded quickly once liquidity flooded the system.

A drop to $10,000 would represent a decline of roughly 92% from Bitcoin’s all-time high, making it the largest drawdown in BTC history. Previous bear markets saw smaller, though still dramatic, declines:

Post-Halving Cycle 1: ~87%

Post-Halving Cycle 2: ~84%

Post-Halving Cycle 3: ~78%

Many prominent analysts, including Lyn Alden and Cathie Wood, argue that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is breaking down. They point to increasing institutional participation, deeper liquidity, and the growing influence of macroeconomic variables rather than supply shocks alone.

Given Bitcoin’s maturity and adoption by sovereign entities and the world’s largest asset managers, a historic crash to $10,000 appears increasingly unlikely—though a conventional bear market remains possible.

A Track Record That Cuts Both Ways

McGlone’s successful $100,000 Bitcoin forecast for 2025, made five years in advance, lends credibility to his analysis. However, he has also made several bearish calls at critical moments that proved incorrect.

In early 2024, just before ETF approval, McGlone predicted that gold would outperform Bitcoin. At the time, Bitcoin traded near $45,000. By year-end, Bitcoin had gained roughly 120%, while gold rose about 27%.

Similarly, in November 2022, following the collapse of FTX and a Bitcoin price of $15,500, McGlone again suggested a move to $10,000. Instead, Bitcoin began its recovery shortly thereafter.

Conclusion

Price forecasts—especially extreme ones—should always be treated with caution. No analyst can predict the future with certainty, and for every bearish scenario there is a credible bullish counterargument. Nevertheless, even investors with a positive long-term outlook on Bitcoin should engage seriously with pessimistic views to build a well-rounded perspective.

A Bitcoin crash to $10,000 is not impossible—but given current levels of adoption, institutional involvement, and market maturity, it would likely require an unprecedented global financial shock. Until then, McGlone’s warning serves less as a precise roadmap and more as a stress test for Bitcoin’s evolving role in the global financial system.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ December 22, 2025 2:22 pm