Here Are the Two Most Likely Scenarios for Bitcoin’s Next Move
The move comes at a time when on-chain data and technical structure are sending mixed but closely aligned signals, suggesting the market is approaching a pivotal moment.
Bitcoin rebounded to a two-month high near $97.5K as exchange supply hit multi-month lows
On-chain data shows retail holders exiting while sell-side pressure continues to ease
The broader trend remains bullish unless key support levels break in the weeks ahead
On-chain data from Santiment shows that Bitcoin’s rally has been accompanied by a notable shakeout among smaller holders. Over the past three days, the network recorded a net drop of roughly 47,000 wallets, pointing to retail participants exiting amid fear and impatience.
At the same time, Bitcoin balances held on exchanges have fallen to their lowest level in around seven months, reducing immediate sell-side pressure and helping support the rebound.
This combination of falling exchange supply and weakening retail participation has historically favored price stability or continuation, as fewer coins are readily available to be sold during periods of renewed demand. The current bounce appears to be drawing strength from that dynamic rather than from speculative excess.
From a technical perspective, analysts are watching a clear rising channel that has guided price action over recent months. According to analysis shared by EGRAG CRYPTO, Bitcoin is compressing near the lower boundary of this structure, a setup that often precedes a decisive move.
The broader trend remains intact as long as key support holds, keeping the odds tilted toward continuation rather than breakdown.
A strong weekly close above the $105,000 area would be seen as confirmation that buyers remain in control, potentially reopening the path toward much higher price zones later in the cycle. On the other hand, a sustained move below the low-$80,000s would signal a structural failure of the channel and raise the risk of a deeper corrective phase.
For now, price action continues to respect the prevailing trend. With supply tightening on exchanges and the chart coiling near a decision point, the coming weekly closes are likely to play an outsized role in defining Bitcoin’s next major move.
The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ January 15, 2026 7:09 am