Eyes a decisive breakout above 200-day EMA
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The USD/CAD pair trades 0.1% higher to near1.3900 during the early European trading session on Thursday. The Loonie pair trades higher as the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly firm on expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady in the monetary policy announcement on January 28. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally higher close to its monthly high of 99.26. The expectations for the Fed to leave interest rates steady in the range of 3.50%-3.75% in the policy meeting this month have intensified after the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for December, which showed that price pressures grew steadily. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains broadly weak as weakening job market conditions have prompted expectations of an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada in the near term. Statistics Canada showed last week that the Unemployment Rate increased sharply to 6.8% in December from the prior reading of 6.5%. USD/CAD technical analysis USD/CAD trades higher to near 1.3900 at the time of writing. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) trends marginally lower near 1.3909, keeping rallies contained. Price action hovers around this long-term average, and a decisive close above it would ease downside pressure. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.68 shows improving bullish momentum without reaching overbought. Measured from the 1.4143 high to the 1.3640 low, the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3891 is under test, while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3951 caps. Trend confirmation requires a clean break above the 200-day EMA, which could open the way to the psychological level of 1.4000. (The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.) US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar…
Filed under: News - @ January 15, 2026 7:23 am