The post Why Jerome Powell’s press conference is the real wildcard for markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

The Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision, and almost no one expects it to cut rates. However, traders will be paying very close attention to Chairman Jerome Powell’s post-meeting press conference, which could hold the real intrigue. His take on what to expect in the coming months and on recent hot topics, including President Donald Trump’s affordability policy push and threats to the Fed’s independence, could move both traditional and crypto markets. Let’s dig into what is priced in and how Powell’s comments could move markets. Status quo on rates After delivering three back-to-back quarter-point cuts, the central bank is expected to stand pat on Wednesday. As of Friday, CME’s FedWatch futures priced in a 96% chance of the Fed holding steady at 3.5%-3.75%. This is consistent with the message Powell delivered in December, saying the bank’s voting committee will hold off on additional cuts into 2026. Further, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who has a vote on the Federal Open Market Committee this year, recently told The New York Times that he believes it is “way too soon” to cut rates again. So, unless the Fed springs an unexpected rate cut, which could tank the dollar while boosting bitcoin and stocks, the decision itself is shaping up to be a non-event. Hawkish or dovish pause? However, the primary question for traders will be whether the impending pause in rate cuts signals a hawkish or dovish stance. A hawkish pause scenario involves Powell flagging lingering inflation risks, denting rate-cut bets and pressuring risk assets lower. A dovish scenario would mean Wednesday’s pause is temporary and rate cuts would resume in the coming months, potentially lifting bitcoin. Morgan Stanley expects the Fed to send a dovish signal by retaining the policy statement wording “considering the range and timing for…

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Filed under: News - @ January 25, 2026 5:25 pm