The post Study finds Kalshi prediction markets as reliable as Wall Street on Fed bets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Kalshi, the prediction site known for turning headlines into tradable bets, is now being taken seriously by economists. A new study shows that Kalshi’s forecasts on Fed interest rates and economic numbers are just as accurate as the ones coming from Wall Street. The paper tracked data from 2022 through June 2024 and was written by three economists, one of them from the Federal Reserve. The research found that Kalshi’s traders matched professionals like the ones surveyed by the New York Fed. In one key case, Kalshi actually beat them. That was when the Fed made a surprise 0.5-point rate cut in September 2024. While Wall Street was caught off guard, Kalshi traders already had it priced in. Study shows Kalshi matched experts on rates and inflation This paper isn’t peer-reviewed yet, but it landed right before another Fed meeting. On that event, Kalshi and Polymarket both showed a 99% chance the Fed would hold steady. The fed funds futures market gave it a 97.2% chance. Every single one of the 92 economists tracked by Bloomberg also expected no change. The study also compared how well Kalshi did on inflation and unemployment numbers. The traders on the platform were just as close to the Bloomberg survey group. And on one key metric, headline Consumer Price Index (CPI), Kalshi beat the professionals in a way the authors said was statistically significant. Kalshi Markets of Interest. Source: Non-peer-reviewed study On Kalshi, users trade simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’ contracts that settle at $1. If a contract trades for 32 cents, that means the market is saying there’s a 32% chance of that thing happening. Many economic contracts are based on whether something like CPI will come in higher than a certain number. The study found that the most likely outcome on Kalshi, what’s…

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Filed under: News - @ January 28, 2026 3:25 pm