David Schwartz, based on probability math, explains the reason behind the trading of XRP below 10. His past in making wrong predictions brings a twist to the argument.

The Chief Technology Officer of Ripple, David Schwartz, has sparked a controversy in the crypto world. He challenged mainstream XRP price predictions in a recent post on X, utilizing simple probability calculations.

According to Joel Katz on X, the truth is seen in the rational market dynamics. He argues that if numerous investors thought that 10% of XRP would end up at $100, the price would be within striking distance of $10. Then buyers would rush to take up all the remaining low-priced shares.

But I will say this:

If many rational people believed that there was a 10% chance that XRP hit $100 within a few years, they definitely wouldn’t sell very much today at much less than $10. Those with that belief would quickly buy up most of the XRP, because they’d value it more…

— David ‘JoelKatz’ Schwartz (@JoelKatz) January 29, 2026

Source: JoelKatz  

Since XRP is being traded at less than ten dollars, it is clear that there is still skepticism in the market. The vast majority of investors shun explosives. Schwartz sees this as confirmation that not many think the coin will hit triple-digit prices in a few years.

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The Probability Paradox That Changes Everything

Schwartz provides mere mathematical logic. Rational investors base their valuation of assets on future return expectations. Assuming that the majority of the population thought that XRP could be valued at 100 dollars, the price would show this idea.

JoelKatz on X observes that supply would soon be disappearing, should XRP remain under 10. The individuals with a positive expectation would outbid the skeptical sellers, and the price would increase based on the judgment of the collective probability.

He claims that rational analysis mostly reflects in crypto prices. The causes of major bull runs are typically unforeseeable external catalysts. The prevailing price does not point to any agreement on radical upside.

Why Schwartz’s Failed Predictions Actually Matter

Bird_XRPL on X pointed out the track record of miscalculations made by Schwartz. Schwartz himself sold XRP at 10 cents, and he never thought that it would go up to 25 cents. Currently, XRP is being traded at around $2, and he did not imagine that Bitcoin could go to $100.

People are losing their minds because David said he doesn’t think XRP hitting $100 is likely > but they clearly didn’t read the rest of the tweet.

He literally admits he’s been wrong before. He sold XRP at $0.10 because he never thought it would hit $0.25… now it’s $2. Same… https://t.co/homKtWL6CM

— Bird (@Bird_XRPL) January 29, 2026

Source: Bird_XRPL 

JoelKatz on X indicates that he is not comfortable with making categorical predictions. Errors of the past encumber his present wary analysis. Bitcoin hit the mark of 120,000, which did not seem possible when it was 100.  

Bird_XRPL notes that this history is significant. The person who has always underestimated the potential of XRP is now not sure that it will hit $100. Previous errors do not nullify the present probability estimates; rather, they only underscore the difficulty of forecasting in turbulent markets.  

Schwartz prefers rational market efficiency to speculation. According to his model, information available and joint estimates of probability are reflected by prices. External and unpredictable events cause major price swings and not personal beliefs.

The post XRP’s $10 Dream: Schwartz Reveals Market’s True Belief appeared first on Live Bitcoin News.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ January 30, 2026 11:59 pm