Michael Nadeau: Crypto bear market is here, Bitcoin’s fair value is $65,000, and the Fed’s policies could hinder recovery
The post Michael Nadeau: Crypto bear market is here, Bitcoin’s fair value is $65,000, and the Fed’s policies could hinder recovery appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Current bear market trends suggest a slow recovery ahead for crypto investors seeking entry points. Key takeaways The current crypto market is experiencing a typical bear market cycle, with expectations for further declines before reaching a macro low. Market recovery after hitting a macro low is often slow, as buyers are not immediately ready to re-enter. Significant entry opportunities in the crypto market tend to occur every three to six months. The market structure has become lopsided, with new money entering while long-term holders are exiting. Bitcoin’s fair value is estimated at $65,000, but market dynamics could change with the new Fed chair. The new Fed president’s policies might not align with market expectations of aggressive rate cuts. Reducing the Fed’s balance sheet is a form of quantitative tightening, contrasting with expected quantitative easing. The current economic environment might not be favorable for crypto due to potential shifts in monetary policy. A significant drop in the stock market could lead to layoffs and a decrease in interest rates. The labor market appears weak despite low unemployment rates, suggesting a potential recession. The decrease in US liquidity is detrimental for risk-on assets, particularly crypto. Bitcoin’s price may take about a year to align with historical cycles and metrics. The market value to realized value ratio is a key metric for assessing market cycles. Bitcoin has historically acted as a liquidity index, often following the movements of the Nasdaq. Bear markets provide a better environment for analysis and understanding of the market. Guest intro Michael Nadeau is the founder of The DeFi Report, a research and advisory firm delivering onchain analysis and market insights for crypto investors. He previously worked at MIT Investment Management Company and served as Director of Ecosystem Strategy at Inveniam, bridging crypto with traditional capital markets. Nadeau applies…
Filed under: News - @ February 3, 2026 11:25 pm