Bitcoin Faces Prolonged Bear Market Risk as Warning Signals Mount
Mike McGlone says Bitcoin’s current cycle resembles past bear markets and could face much deeper downside if equities weaken.
He warns the 200-day moving average rollover is a classic signal of a prolonged downturn, despite possible short-term rallies.
Heavy ETF activity and large corporate losses are reinforcing the stress McGlone sees building across the Bitcoin market.
McGlone has argued that Bitcoin’s recent price action mirrors earlier periods of deep market stress, when risk assets broadly declined alongside equities. He pointed to past cycles in which Bitcoin lost 50% or more of its value, noting that such drawdowns have been a recurring feature during prolonged downturns.
He reiterated that if a broader stock market correction unfolds, Bitcoin is unlikely to be spared. In that scenario, McGlone said prices could drift back toward levels last seen years ago, potentially near $10,000, as liquidity tightens and risk appetite fades across markets.
Bloomberg Analyst says Bitcoin will crash to $10,000. pic.twitter.com/4KAtKaBf6C
— Bitcoin Junkies (@BitcoinJunkies) February 5, 2026
Technical Indicators Reinforce Bearish Outlook
According to McGlone, technical signals are aligning with his cautious stance. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average has rolled over, a development that has historically been associated with extended bearish phases. While sharp countertrend rallies are common during bear markets, he cautioned that such moves are often temporary and can give false signals of recovery.
Even rebounds toward much higher levels, he said, would not necessarily invalidate the broader bearish structure if macro conditions remain under pressure.
IBIT Turmoil Highlights Institutional Stress
Recent developments in the ETF market appear to support McGlone’s concerns. The spot Bitcoin ETF IBIT just recorded a historic trading session, with more than $10 billion in shares changing hands as its price fell roughly 13%. It was one of the steepest daily declines since the fund launched.
The surge in volume alongside falling prices suggests aggressive institutional repositioning rather than retail panic, underscoring how fragile sentiment has become among large investors.
Strategy Takes Heavy Loss but Stays Committed
Corporate Bitcoin exposure is also being tested. Strategy reported a $12.4 billion loss in its latest quarterly results as its stock tumbled. Despite the setback, the company’s CEO said Strategy will continue buying Bitcoin every single quarter, reaffirming its long-term accumulation strategy even as short-term risks mount.
Bitcoin Price Under Pressure
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $62,000. With technical indicators weakening, ETF flows turning volatile, and macro uncertainty still unresolved, McGlone’s warning is gaining traction among investors increasingly wary that the worst of the downturn may not yet be over.
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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ February 6, 2026 7:06 am