Short-Term Capitulation Hits as Bitcoin Diverges From Long-Term Value
The post Short-Term Capitulation Hits as Bitcoin Diverges From Long-Term Value appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
TLDR: Bitcoin shows strong correlation with equities, placing short-term price action under macro and liquidity influence. Short-term holders sent over 94,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss, marking the largest capitulation of this correction. Options data shows negative gamma exposure, increasing the chance of sharp moves around key expiration dates. Long-term power-law valuation signals Bitcoin trades over 40% below trend despite ongoing macro pressure. Bitcoin traded in volatile ranges as macro pressure and investor panic shaped near-term price action. Data showed heavy selling from short-term holders as the asset slipped below key technical levels. At the same time, long-term valuation models signaled a widening gap between price and trend value. The divergence revealed a market pulled between liquidity stress and structural repricing forces. Bitcoin Price Mispricing Tied to Macro Correlation and Options Structure Bitcoin moved in step with U.S. equities during the latest pullback. Thirty-day correlations showed strong alignment with Nasdaq, S&P 500, and high-yield bonds. Recency-weighted data confirmed the link with risk assets remained elevated. This pattern placed short-term direction under macro and liquidity influence rather than narrative-driven trading. Lead and lag signals showed equities and credit markets moving before Bitcoin. According to figures shared by David (@david_eng_mba), the Nasdaq led Bitcoin by about four days, while the dollar index led by roughly ten days. $54K BTC Mispricing: Choppy Short-Term (Tied to Nasdaq), Bullish Long-Term Bitcoin runs on two clocks: power law reversion and fast macro/liquidity moves. Short-term macro clock:BTC is tightly linked to risk assets right now. 30d correlation: Nasdaq +0.731, S&P +0.727, HYG… pic.twitter.com/0OkQBuYjHY — David (@david_eng_mba) February 7, 2026 Options market positioning reinforced near-term uncertainty. Spot price hovered near the gamma flip zone, with resistance clustered near $70,000 and risk concentrated below that level. Net gamma exposure remained negative, pointing to unstable price behavior. A…
Filed under: News - @ February 8, 2026 3:52 am