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Bitcoin’s on-chain loss metrics hit levels comparable to 2022’s Luna collapse, though at higher price points, signaling late-cycle capitulation rather than systemic crash. Summary Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss metric entered deeply negative territory on Feb. 7, marking the second deepest level in history after June 2022’s Luna/UST collapse The 7-day moving average of realized losses reached one of the highest smoothed levels on record, with Feb. 5 posting the second-largest single-day loss in Bitcoin’s history Unlike 2022’s losses at lower prices, current losses are crystallizing around $67,000, suggesting a flushing out of late cycle entries rather than systemic failure Bitcoin’s (BTC) on-chain loss indicators have reached levels comparable to those observed during the Luna/UST collapse in 2022, though at significantly higher price points, according to analyst Axel Adler Jr. Bitcoin’s Net Realized Profit/Loss metric has entered deeply negative territory, with the 7-day moving average falling into negative readings on Feb. 7 before improving slightly by Feb. 10, Adler reported. The current reading represents the second deepest negative level in the metric’s recorded history, exceeded only by June 18, 2022, when the indicator reached a record low during the Luna/UST crash and subsequent liquidations. The metric has remained below a significant negative threshold for five consecutive days, forming what Adler characterized as a sustained cluster of seller pressure. According to the analyst, realized losses are dominating realized profits on moved coins, indicating the market is processing supply from participants selling below their cost basis. “The depth and duration of the current negative regime point to massive capitulation of participants who bought coins at higher levels,” Adler stated in his analysis. “The key reversal trigger is the return of Net Realized Profit/Loss above zero, which would signal the market’s transition from loss dominance to profit dominance.” A companion metric, Bitcoin Realized Loss…

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Filed under: News - @ February 12, 2026 11:28 am