Expert Predicts BTC’s Underperformance as Options Traders Price in $20K Gold Target
The post Expert Predicts BTC’s Underperformance as Options Traders Price in $20K Gold Target appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin’s performance against gold has come under fresh scrutiny after analyst Willy Woo warned that a 12-year valuation trend has broken. Woo said Bitcoin should trade far higher relative to gold, but that markets have not followed that path. At the same time, options traders have reportedly built aggressive bets targeting $20,000 gold by December. Expert Says Quantum Risk Is Pressuring Bitcoin Willy Woo said the long-running Bitcoin-to-Gold valuation trend broke after “quantum” risks entered investor awareness. He argued Bitcoin should be valued much higher relative to gold but noted the market has moved the opposite way. Woo added that Bitcoin will likely adopt quantum-resistant signatures in the future. However, he said that would not solve the issue of roughly 4 million lost coins potentially re-entering circulation. He estimated a 75% chance that Bitcoin would not freeze those coins through a protocol hard fork. Notably, Woo framed the risk in accumulation terms. He said that since Strategy began accumulating Bitcoin in 2020, companies and spot ETFs together have accumulated about 2.8 million BTC. He argued that 4 million lost BTC would equal roughly eight years of enterprise accumulation. Woo also claimed the market has already started pricing in the potential return of lost coins. He said that the process may only be completed once “Q-Day” risk leaves the market. He estimated Q-Day could still be 5 to 15 years away, keeping pressure on BTC pricing. Woo further connected the Bitcoin vs gold divergence to macro demand. He said the next decade could bring debt-cycle stress, pushing investors toward hard assets like gold. He added that this could explain why gold rises while Bitcoin struggles. Polymarket Odds and Other Analysts’ Views Others have also been scrutinizing Bitcoin’s outlook. According to Polymarket data, traders currently assign a 28% chance that Bitcoin will…
Filed under: News - @ February 16, 2026 7:25 pm