While much of the market’s attention remains fixed on the Bitcoin (BTC) short-term price outlook for the remainder of the year, some early industry voices are raising a far longer-term concern — one that could introduce as much as $274 billion in potential selling pressure over the next decade.

Quantum Risk Debate Grows 

In a recent post on social media, market expert Crypto Rover pointed to what he described as a growing conversation among early Bitcoin analysts and long-time participants in the space. 

According to the analysis, the warning is not coming from retail traders reacting to daily price swings. Instead, it is being discussed by so-called “OG” holders — investors who have been involved with Bitcoin since its earliest years.

The issue at the center of the debate is not macroeconomics or regulatory shifts, but quantum computing. A segment of early adopters believes that advances in quantum technology may no longer be a distant or purely theoretical risk. 

Within the next five to ten years, they argue, quantum systems could become powerful enough to challenge the cryptographic foundations that secure the Bitcoin network.

If quantum machines were able to break or significantly weaken that encryption, older wallets — particularly those using early-generation security standards — could become vulnerable.

The concern is not that Bitcoin’s network is currently weak, but that a sufficiently advanced quantum breakthrough could expose dormant coins whose private keys were once thought secure. This is where the potential supply shock comes into focus.

Potential Return Of Early-Era Bitcoin

An estimated 4 million BTC from Bitcoin’s early years, particularly before 2011, are considered inactive or lost. Markets generally treat those coins as permanently out of circulation, effectively reducing Bitcoin’s usable supply. 

However, Rover asserts that if quantum computing were ever able to unlock even a portion of those wallets, that supply could theoretically return to the market. 

To understand the magnitude of such a shift, Rover points to recent history. Since 2020, institutions and corporations have collectively accumulated roughly 3 million BTC, which played a key role in driving BTC from $10,000 to peak levels above $120,000. 

The expert warns that if 4 million Bitcoin were suddenly viewed as potentially liquid supply, it would represent a long-term overhang far exceeding the scale of recent institutional accumulation.

However, Rover highlighted that quantum computing does not represent an imminent danger to Bitcoin’s security. The technology is continuously evolving, and there is no confirmed ability to break modern cryptographic standards at scale. 

BTC was trading at roughly $67,800 at the time of writing, representing a 2.6% decrease over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data. 

Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ February 18, 2026 5:00 am