Anas Alhajji: OPEC’s decisions driven by regional demand, not global
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Anas Alhajji: OPEC’s decisions driven by regional demand, not global | Macro Voices Oil prices in 2025 were expected to remain in the seventies range but fell below expectations. OPEC’s decision to unwind production cuts was based on demand for their own oil, not global demand. The bearish sentiment regarding oil supply was proven incorrect. Key Takeaways Oil prices in 2025 were expected to remain in the seventies range but fell below expectations. OPEC’s decision to unwind production cuts was based on demand for their own oil, not global demand. The bearish sentiment regarding oil supply was proven incorrect. An increase in oil on water does not necessarily indicate an increase in actual oil supply. Chevron is the primary loser in the recent disruptions to Kazakhstan’s oil exports. OPEC does not believe in the massive surplus that the International Energy Agency is discussing. Iran’s natural gas exports to Iraq were halted due to a snowstorm, increasing Iraq’s oil consumption. The reported surplus of oil does not exist due to significant production declines. Demand for oil is expected to increase during the holy month of Ramadan. Saudi Arabia’s oil production increase is driven by rising domestic demand due to religious events. OPEC’s perspective on oil supply levels diverges from the International Energy Agency’s reports. Weather events can have a direct impact on energy supply chains and oil consumption. Geopolitical events can have unexpected impacts on major oil companies like Chevron. Seasonal demand fluctuations in the oil market are influenced by cultural events. Saudi Arabia prepares its inventories for increased demand during religious events. Guest intro Dr. Anas F. Alhajji is a Managing Partner at Energy Outlook Advisors LLC and former Chief Economist of NGP Energy Capital Management, where he led macro-analysis of oil, natural gas, and related markets. He is a…
Filed under: News - @ February 18, 2026 11:29 pm