According to a new Bloomberg Research report, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index recently collapsed to 5 – a level below prior major shock events – underscoring widespread retail capitulation.

Bitcoin has largely traded within the 65,000-70,000 dollar range despite the deteriorating mood. The report suggests that such deeply negative sentiment has historically coincided with selling exhaustion and stabilization phases. A further negative monthly close would mark five consecutive monthly declines – a pattern last seen during the 2018 bear market.

Macro Pressure Weighs on Risk Assets

The broader backdrop remains firmly risk-off. Equities and crypto have struggled, while the U.S. dollar and Treasuries moved higher. The minutes from the January meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee struck a notably hawkish tone, introducing rate hike language for the first time in the current easing cycle.

The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75 percent on a 10-2 vote. Policymakers warned that disinflation has been slower and more uneven than expected, and several members raised the possibility of rate hikes if inflation proves persistent. While January CPI came in at 2.4 percent year over year, the Fed’s preferred PCE measure printed at 2.9 percent for December, highlighting gradual progress.

Markets have sharply adjusted expectations. CME futures now price roughly two quarter-point rate cuts for 2026, with the first not expected before June – a clear divergence from the more optimistic projections seen late last year.

Institutions Accumulate as Retail Steps Back

Despite the fear, ownership data shows a structural shift underway. Over the past year, Bitcoin supply has rotated away from individuals and toward businesses, funds, and ETFs. Retail holders appear to be distributing, while institutional cohorts continue to accumulate.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs are approaching a fifth consecutive week of net outflows, with roughly 3.9 billion dollars redeemed recently. The average ETF cost basis sits near 84,000 dollars, leaving many holders underwater. Yet ETF assets under management as a share of total Bitcoin market capitalization remain elevated.

Since launch in early 2024, ETF AUM as a percentage of Bitcoin’s market cap climbed from roughly 3.1 percent to about 7 percent near the October 2025 all-time high. Even after a roughly 50 percent drawdown, the ratio has only modestly eased to around 6.3 percent – a signal that institutional participation remains structurally intact.

DeFi Revenue Leaders Outperform

Institutional engagement is expanding beyond passive exposure. Major asset managers are increasingly interacting directly with on-chain infrastructure. BlackRock has been active around Uniswap, while Apollo Global Management partnered with Morpho, signaling deeper integration between traditional finance and decentralized platforms.

Within DeFi, protocols demonstrating consistent revenue generation and usage have outperformed broader L1, L2, and core DeFi benchmarks year-to-date. Bloomberg Research notes that revenue traction and institutional positioning appear to be reinforcing one another as capital reallocates toward projects aligned with this convergence.

The revenue metrics are striking. Several crypto applications have reached 100 million dollars in annualized revenue faster than many well-known technology firms. Hyperliquid achieved the milestone in under three months, while PancakeSwap and Uniswap followed within months. This pace outstrips the early revenue timelines of companies such as Snowflake and OpenAI.

Looking Ahead

Bloomberg Research characterizes the current phase as a late-stage drawdown dominated by macro headwinds rather than crypto-specific weaknesses. Restrictive monetary policy, evolving AI dynamics, and geopolitical risks are weighing on sentiment.

At the same time, the divergence between extreme fear and ongoing institutional build-out suggests a market transitioning from speculation-led growth to infrastructure-driven expansion. Retail positioning has retreated, but institutional development across DeFi integration, tokenization, and stablecoin payment rails continues.

The key question now is timing. Sentiment typically lags structural change. Upcoming macro releases and ecosystem events may provide further clarity on whether this period of extreme fear marks exhaustion – or simply another chapter in a prolonged adjustment phase.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ February 20, 2026 7:12 pm