Forget M2: Treasury T-Bill Issuance Emerges as Bitcoin’s Strongest Macro Signal
The post Forget M2: Treasury T-Bill Issuance Emerges as Bitcoin’s Strongest Macro Signal appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.
Bitcoin closely tracks shifts in U.S. T-bill issuance, more than M2 or Fed balance sheet changes. For years, crypto investors relied on M2 money supply and Federal Reserve balance sheet data to predict Bitcoin’s direction. Liquidity expansion often aligned with rallies, while tightening cycles were linked to sell-offs. That framework shaped much of Bitcoin’s macro analysis. Fresh data now points to a different driver. Bitcoin Tracks T-Bill Issuance With +0.80 Correlation, Outpacing M2 and QE As noted by analyst Axel Bitblaze, U.S. Treasury T-bill issuance has had a stronger relationship with Bitcoin than traditional liquidity measures. Over the past four years, U.S. Treasury T-bill issuance has shown the strongest link to Bitcoin’s price. Data shows a +0.80 correlation. This chart is worth watching next time.. Not M2 supply, not the fed balance sheet. as we’ve already seen M2 decouple. there were periods where M2 was flat or even up and $BTC didn’t care.. same with the fed balance sheet. correlation here is basically zero at -0.07. the chart… pic.twitter.com/bR4UhXX0xr — Axel Bitblaze 🪓 (@Axel_bitblaze69) February 20, 2026 In comparison, Fed liquidity facilities recorded +0.54, while the global liquidity index came in at +0.26. Fed balance sheet activity, including QE and QT, showed almost no relationship at -0.07. A number close to zero signals little connection. BTC rallied strongly in 2023 and 2024 even as the Fed reduced its balance sheet. That suggests quantitative tightening was not the main force behind price action. T-bill issuance, however, moved much more closely with Bitcoin over the same period. In late 2021, T-bill issuance peaked around the same time Bitcoin reached its all-time high. Issuance then declined throughout 2022. Several months later, BTC entered a deep bear market. Mid-2023 marked a bottom in issuance, which aligned with the start of the OG coin’s recovery.…
Filed under: News - @ February 21, 2026 4:29 am