TLDR:

USDT 60-day market cap change has fallen below -$3B for only the second time in crypto market history.

The first instance occurred in late 2022, aligning precisely with Bitcoin’s cycle bottom near the $16,000 level.

Three single-day USDT outflows exceeding -$1B have each coincided with local bottoms or sharp Bitcoin volatility.

Historical data shows Bitcoin entered strong recovery phases once USDT outflows stabilized after peak liquidity stress.

USDT is flashing a rare on-chain signal that has only appeared twice in crypto market history. The stablecoin’s 60-day market cap change has dropped below -$3 billion.

This level was last reached in late 2022, when Bitcoin bottomed near $16,000. That period marked one of the most severe liquidity contractions in the digital asset market.

Now, this same metric is triggering again in early 2026, with Bitcoin trading between $65,000 and $70,000.

USDT Outflows Mirror Patterns From the 2022 Cycle Bottom

The 60-day USDT market cap contraction has only breached -$3 billion on two occasions. The first came during the late 2022 market collapse, a period of forced selling and maximum fear.

The second is occurring now, in early 2026, after Bitcoin’s recent all-time high run.

On a daily basis, USDT has recorded three separate instances of single-day outflows exceeding -$1 billion. Each of those episodes lined up with either local market bottoms or sharp Bitcoin volatility clusters. That pattern is difficult to ignore given the current market conditions.

Analyst CrptosRus qouting MorenoDV_ flagged this development on X, noting the historical weight of the signal. “The 60-day Market Cap Change has dropped below -$3B, on only two occasions,” the post read. “The first occurred in late 2022, precisely as Bitcoin was carving its cycle bottom near $16K.”

Large-scale USDT redemptions at this rate typically reflect institutional or major holder exits from the broader crypto ecosystem.

Historically, these exits tend to cluster near exhaustion points rather than at the start of prolonged downtrends.

Liquidity Conditions Now Determine Bitcoin’s Next Move

Stablecoins function as the dry powder of the crypto market. When USDT supply grows, it points to fresh capital entering the ecosystem. When it contracts sharply, it reflects risk-off behavior, liquidity withdrawal, or forced redemptions.

For Bitcoin, a liquidity-sensitive asset, USDT supply trends carry measurable weight. The current 60-day contraction points to sustained capital outflows and structural tightening in crypto-native liquidity. That creates a fragile environment for price stability.

However, past cycles offer some useful context here. Once forced deleveraging completed and USDT flows stabilized, Bitcoin moved into strong medium-term recovery phases. The normalization of liquidity conditions preceded meaningful upside in prior cycles.

The current setup presents a conditional risk-reward scenario. If USDT contraction continues, downside pressure may extend further.

If flows flatten or reverse, the asymmetry shifts rapidly toward upside potential. Extreme liquidity stress has historically marked opportunity, but only once selling exhaustion is confirmed by stabilizing on-chain flows.

The post USDT Rare -$3B Signal Returns: Is Bitcoin Approaching Another Cycle Bottom? appeared first on Blockonomi.

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Filed under: Bitcoin - @ February 22, 2026 8:47 pm