The post Bitcoin Price Faces 88% December Probability Call appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Key Insights: Economists projected 88% odds of a higher Bitcoin price. The sentiment index fell to extreme fear territory. Analysts split on short-term market direction. Economist Timothy Peterson said on Saturday that Bitcoin price carried an 88% probability of trading higher within 10 months. He based the estimate on a model showing that half of the past 24 months delivered positive returns. The projection placed the potential upside window around late December, despite weak sentiment. BTC price forecast emerged as the asset traded roughly a quarter below its year-opening level. That drawdown framed the current debate over whether the cycle had already reset or remained under pressure. Market participants now weighed statistical models against deteriorating risk appetite. Market Sentiment Diverged from Statistical Model Peterson wrote on X that he tracked rolling two-year windows to detect inflection points. His calculation showed that 50% of monthly closes during that span ended in the green, a historical indicator of forward strength. He argued that such a balance often preceded upward drift rather than prolonged decline. Source: X At the same time, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index printed an “Extreme Fear” reading of 9 on Sunday. That gauge reflected deep caution across digital asset markets. The reading coincided with sustained outflows from risk assets and subdued trading activity. Polymarket data showed traders assigned a 17% probability that December would become Bitcoin’s strongest month of 2026. November ranked slightly ahead at 18%, reflecting historical seasonality trends. CoinGlass records indicated that November delivered the highest average monthly return since 2013, at 41.13%. This divergence between historical averages and present caution created tension in the Bitcoin price outlook. Statistical momentum pointed upward, while positioning and sentiment signaled restraint. That contrast shaped near-term volatility. Bitcoin Price Technical Structure and Analyst Views Split CoinMarketCap data showed Bitcoin changed…

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Filed under: News - @ February 23, 2026 1:30 pm