TLDR

Oppenheimer upgraded Oracle (ORCL) to Outperform with a $185 price target on Wednesday
ORCL has dropped from a record high of $328.33 in September to around $149, cutting its valuation multiple by more than half
Analyst Brian Schwartz sees a favorable risk/reward, projecting EPS could double or triple by fiscal 2030
OpenAI’s growth to 800M+ weekly users and a potential $100B funding round are easing counterparty risk concerns
Oracle plans to raise $45B–$50B via bond issuance to fund an estimated $330B in capex through fiscal 2030

 

Oracle (ORCL) got a vote of confidence on Wednesday. Oppenheimer upgraded the stock to Outperform from Perform and slapped a $185 price target on it.

Oracle Corporation, ORCL

Analyst Brian Schwartz led the call. He argued the stock has gotten cheap enough that the risk/reward now looks attractive.

ORCL was trading up around 4% on the day following the news, hitting approximately $149.45 in premarket. That’s still a long way from its all-time high.

The stock peaked at $328.33 on September 10, 2025. That was after Oracle announced a $300 billion surge in remaining customer contract obligations, much of it tied to OpenAI.

Since then, the stock has been in a steady slide. A broader tech pullback, concerns about Oracle’s financing needs, and questions about whether OpenAI could actually pay its bills all weighed on sentiment.

The valuation has been cut sharply. ORCL now trades at around 19 times forward earnings, down from above 40 times back in September.

“Multiples can always go lower,” Schwartz wrote. But he said the selloff “limits the magnitude of the downside at current levels.”

OpenAI Risk Easing

A big part of the bear case had been Oracle’s exposure to OpenAI as a cornerstone customer. That concern is cooling off.

OpenAI’s weekly active users re-accelerated to more than 800 million as of early February. The company is reportedly building out its first enterprise sales team and closing deals.

OpenAI is also thought to be on the edge of closing a $100 billion funding round. That makes it easier for investors to believe it can meet its obligations to Oracle.

Oppenheimer also cited TikTok as another major customer announcement helping to reduce counterparty concerns.

Financing Progress

Oracle’s other big problem has been figuring out how to pay for all of this. Oppenheimer estimates the company needs around $330 billion in capital expenditures through fiscal 2030.

Oracle made a dent in that earlier this month, announcing plans to raise between $45 billion and $50 billion through a bond issuance.

That move directly supports Oracle Cloud Infrastructure growth, according to Schwartz and his team.

Even with management’s revenue guidance cut by 25% in their base case, Oppenheimer still models EPS more than doubling by fiscal year 2030. In the bull case — a 10% guidance haircut — EPS nearly triples.

Schwartz called Oracle a top-tier EPS growth compounder among large-cap names through the end of the decade.

The upgrade is described as a “contrarian bet.” Oracle is broadly underowned by institutional investors despite the selloff, the analysts noted.

That said, the broader sell side is already fairly bullish. Of 45 analysts tracked by FactSet, 78% rate ORCL a Buy equivalent — up from 67% at the September peak.

D.A. Davidson made a similar move two weeks prior, upgrading Oracle to Buy from Hold with a $180 price target.

Schwartz was upfront that the call “may prove early,” calling ORCL a “show me stock” that will need consistent results to win over skeptical investors.

The post Oracle (ORCL) Stock Upgraded to Outperform by Oppenheimer With $185 Target appeared first on CoinCentral.

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Filed under: News - @ February 25, 2026 3:28 pm