Bitcoin price rally is riding record $1.2 trillion margin debt, and the unwind could be here already
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Bitcoin’s rally is riding record $1.279 trillion margin debt, and the unwind could arrive without warning Bitcoin’s next phase is being shaped by a record build in U.S. market leverage, recession-leaning survey data and an expanding Treasury buyback program that is aimed at bond-market plumbing rather than monetary easing. Those inputs show up across FINRA’s margin statistics, an Associated Press report on consumer confidence and the Treasury’s Feb. 4 quarterly refunding statement. A post from The Kobeissi Letter put the January jump in brokerage margin borrowing at about $53 billion. It framed the move as another step in a stretch of monthly increases and a setup where cross-asset deleveraging could travel faster than spot-only narratives. The underlying FINRA dataset shows “Debit Balances in Customers’ Securities Margin Accounts” at 1,279,042 ($ millions) for Jan-2026, or about $1.279 trillion. That is up from 1,225,597 ($ millions) in Dec-2025, or about $1.226 trillion, a month-over-month change of 53,445 ($ millions), or about $53.445 billion, according to FINRA’s margin statistics. Series (FINRA) Dec-2025 Jan-2026 MoM change Debit balances in customers’ securities margin accounts $1.225597T $1.279042T +$53.445B For Bitcoin, the practical issue is less whether the borrowing is “crypto leverage” and more that a larger stock of system leverage can compress volatility during uptrends and then reprice quickly when risk limits tighten. Correlations across liquid markets often converge during stress, and that can pull BTC into a forced-sell window even if crypto funding is stable. That risk channel grows when margin borrowing accelerates. Liquidation and re-hedging flows can become synchronized across equities, rates, and high-beta assets, a mix that can drag BTC lower as risk is reduced elsewhere. The leverage build also collides with policy risk calendars. In episodes like the current tariff/legal pivot, markets price both the magnitude of the shock and the timing…
Filed under: News - @ February 27, 2026 2:29 pm