The post The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com.

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $66,000 level and is now attempting to consolidate above it in order to extend its recovery. The move has improved short-term momentum, but structural signals suggest that upside conviction remains fragile. Holding above $66K is technically important, yet the broader supply backdrop may limit the sustainability of further gains. According to analyst Axel Adler, cumulative exchange netflows remain a critical constraint. As long as netflows stay positive — meaning more Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges than leaving them — the probability of sustained price expansion remains limited. Recent data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (All Exchanges, Daily) metric reinforces this caution. Since January 14, total BTC held across major exchanges has increased from 2.723 million to 2.752 million BTC, representing a net addition of roughly 28,489 BTC, or about 1% over 45 days. Although the trajectory has not been linear — with a local peak near 2.794 million BTC in early February followed by a partial pullback — reserves have consistently re-established themselves near the upper bound of the range. This stepwise growth structure signals a persistent return of coins to exchanges. Historically, rising exchange balances imply expanding potential sell-side supply. Until reserves break decisively below January’s 2.723 million BTC baseline, structural selling pressure remains embedded in the market. Netflow Regime Shift Signals Structural Distribution The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange netflows provides critical confirmation that the recent reserve growth is not incidental. The transition from -1,187 BTC on January 14 to +628 BTC by February 27 represents more than a short-term fluctuation — it reflects a structural regime shift from accumulation to distribution. When the SMA(30) netflow remains negative, it indicates coins are being withdrawn from exchanges faster than they are deposited, typically associated with accumulation behavior. The steady climb toward zero throughout January,…

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Filed under: News - @ February 28, 2026 3:21 am